TFM Morning Update 11-20-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December futures are 1/4 cent higher to 430. March futures have gained 1/2 cent to 442. December 2026 corn futures have gained 3/4 cent to 463-1/2.
S&P Global forecasts that U.S. farmers will scale back corn acreage in 2026, projecting plantings at 95.0 million acres, or 3.8% below 2025 levels. Soybean acreage, meanwhile, is expected to increase.
Weekly ethanol production increased to 321 million gallons for the week ending November 14, up from 316 million the previous week but still 1.7% below year-ago levels. The industry used an estimated 109 million bushels of corn, in line with expectations.

Soybean futures are trading in a mixed fashion to begin the day. January futures are trading 1/4 cent lower to 1136. March futures are trading 1/4 cent higher to 1144-3/4. November 2026 soybean futures have gained 1-1/2 cents to trade at 1121.
China has purchased well over a million tons of U.S. soybeans so far this week, but buying would need to remain aggressive for the country to reach the 12 million metric tons that U.S. officials say it committed to by year-end. Traders remain uncertain whether China will ultimately follow through on that target.
Weather conditions in Argentina are improving, with drier forecasts expected to help farmers return to fields and resume soybean planting. The shift to a drier pattern is welcome after recent excessive rainfall and flooding in parts of Buenos Aires slowed progress on this year’s soybean crop.

The wheat complex has offered positive gains to begin Thursday. December Chicago wheat is up 4-1/2 cents to 541-1/4, Kansas City wheat is up 2-1/2 cents to 518, and Minn wheat has gained 1 cents to 583.
S&P Global Energy estimated the U.S. winter wheat crop at 32.4 million acres in a report released Wednesday, down slightly from last year’s 33.2 million acres.
Ukraine estimates its 2025/26 wheat production at 23 mmt, matching the current USDA forecast. The country projects exports at 17 mmt, above the USDA’s 15 mmt outlook. Ukraine’s economy ministry also indicated that no wheat export restrictions are planned for the remainder of the marketing year.

Matthew Lucas