TFM Morning Update 11-21-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning. December futures are 1 cent lower to 425-1/2. March futures have lost 1-1/4 cents to 436-1/2. December 2026 corn futures have lost 1-1/4 cents to 459-3/4.
Export sales for 2025/26 corn totaled 2.26 MMT for the week of October 2, landing near the upper end of trade expectations (1.4–2.5 MMT). This was the largest weekly total so far in the marketing year and stood 84.9% above the same week a year ago.
CFTC data released Wednesday showed that speculators added 40,635 contracts to their net short position in corn futures and options during the week ended September 30. As of that date, now more than six weeks old, their net short position stood at 135,310 contracts.

Soybean futures are trading slightly lower to begin the day. January futures are trading 3-1/2 cents lower to 1119. March futures are trading 3 cents lower to 1129. November 2026 soybean futures have lost 2-1/2 cents to trade at 1111-1/4.
According to USDA data released Thursday, China has booked more than 1.5 million tons of soybeans this week. Despite that activity, China is still well behind the 12-million-ton soybean purchase target U.S. officials said it agreed to meet before the year concludes.
The International Grains Council announced on Thursday that it now expects larger wheat and corn harvests for the 2025/26 season. Its outlook for soybeans edged slightly lower, though even with the reduction, the crop is still projected to be the second-largest on record.

The wheat complex is offering small losses Friday morning. December Chicago wheat is down 3 cents to 524, Kansas City wheat is down 2-1/2 cents to 503-3/4, and Minn wheat has lost 3 cents to 570.
The International Grains Council has lifted its global wheat production outlook for 2025/26 to 830 million metric tons, an increase of 3 million tons from its previous projection.
Argentina’s wheat crop is now projected at 23.5 million metric tons, an upgrade from the earlier 22.2-million-ton estimate and well above last year’s 18.5 million. SovEcon also nudged its Russian wheat outlook higher, raising the 2025 estimate to 88.6 million tons — an increase of 0.8 million from its prior figure. The group issued its first projection for 2026, placing production at 83.8 million tons.

Matthew Lucas