TFM Midday Update 11-20-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower at midday. December futures have lost 2-1/2 cents to 427-1/2. March futures have lost 3 cents to 438-½.
A delayed USDA export sales report released today showed robust bookings for the 2025/26 marketing year, with significant volumes to key destinations like Mexico, Japan, and South Korea, totaling over 2 million metric tons for the prior week.
Record projected exports from top producers like the U.S. (3 billion bushels) and Brazil are flooding the market, exacerbating surplus concerns with U.S. ending stocks at elevated levels.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday. January futures have lost 4 cents to 1132-¼. March futures have lost 2-½ cents to 1141-3/4.
China has purchased more than a million tons of U.S. soybeans so far this week but buying would need to remain strong for them to reach the 12 mmt commitment U.S. officials say is targeted by year-end. Traders remain unsure whether China will ultimately follow through.
A rally in the dollar index to a two-week high has also limited demand for Chicago grains by making U.S. supplies more expensive for overseas buyers.

Wheat futures have followed corn and soybeans lower at midday. December Chicago wheat has lost 3-1/2 cents to 533-1/4. December KC wheat has lost 4-3/4 cents to 510-3/4. Spring wheat has lost 5 cents to 576.
Analysts at S&P Global Energy estimated U.S. winter wheat plantings at 32.4 million acres, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres.
Ukraine estimates its 2025/26 wheat crop at 23 mmt, in line with the USDA forecast. The country projects exports at 17 mmt, exceeding the USDA’s 15 mmt outlook, and its economy ministry indicated that no export restrictions are planned for the remainder of the marketing year.

Matthew Lucas