TFM Daily Market Summary 11-25-2025

 

HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

 

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures finished mostly higher on Tuesday with light gains, but the pressure from first notice day kept the sellers active in the December futures. December corn lost ¼ cents to 423 1/4, but March futures gained 1 ½ to 438 ½.
  • First notice day of the December futures is Friday, and producers holding Basis contracts need to make decisions to roll to another month or price. This typically brings selling pressure into the market as bushels are being priced.
  • The final Crop Progress report of the season from NASS showed that 96% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested, just a touch behind the five-year average of 97%.
  • Today’s export report, covering the week ending October 9, showed corn sales of 52 million bushels. That brings total commitments for the year to 1.210 billion bushels, running 55% ahead of last year’s pace. USDA’s export forecast of 3.075 billion bushels suggests a full-year increase of about 9%.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after coming back from earlier morning lows. Trade has been relatively quiet ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, but soybean futures may be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on the charts. November gained 1-1/2 cents at $11.24-3/4, and March gained 2-3/4 cents to $11.34-3/4. December soybean meal gained $2.80 to $317.00, and December soybean oil gained 0.12 cents to 50.30 cents.
  • According to AgRural, the Brazilian soybean planting is now 81% complete as of November 20. This is down from 86% a year ago at this time, and there are some concerns over irregular rainfall in Mato Grosso and Goiás states.
  • Soybeans gained a bit of support as optimism over Chinese demand ticked slightly higher following yesterday’s phone call between President Trump and President Xi. Chinese officials described the discussion as “maintaining positive momentum” in trade relations and noted it should benefit both sides.
  • Secretary Rollins stated that a U.S.–China deal could be signed within the next week or so. The agreement may include the removal of remaining tariffs on U.S. soybeans and could pave the way for increased private-sector purchases, not just sales to state-owned COFCO.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat finished the day with gains across all three classes, supported by a weaker dollar, though the market continues to lack fresh news. Chicago December wheat ended up at 5.26 ½. Kansas City December wheat ended up at 5.14 ¾.
  • U.S. wheat is expected to enter dormancy across the Plains as cooler weather moves in toward the end of the month. USDA reports winter wheat planting 97% complete. The latest weekly crop report shows 48% of the crop rated good to excellent, up 3% on the week, while 17% is rated poor to very poor.
  • USDA released export data for the week ending October 9. Wheat sales totaled 23 million bushels, bringing year-to-date commitments to 568 million bushels—up 25% from last year versus the USDA’s forecast of a 9% increase. Shipments reached 382 million bushels, up 20% year-over-year.
  • IKAR projects Russian wheat production for 2026 to range between 86 and 91 million metric tons.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • December Class III futures traded 25 cents above yesterday’s settlement this morning, but ended up losing 26 cents by this afternoon’s close.
  • Spot cheese fell 2.50 cents to $1.52875/lb, a new low for the year on a 5 cent loss for blocks. Spot whey was down 2 cents to $0.74/lb.
  • Class IV futures were either unchanged or lower today with the December contract dropping 15 cents to $13.40.
  • Spot butter hit a new low for the move at $1.43/lb after dropping 3 cents today. Spot powder was down a quarter cent.

 

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty

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