HAPPY THANKSGIVING FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING!

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00 p.m. (CST).

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw strong buying support as the market moved past the basis contract pricing window, and likely short covering before the Thanksgiving holiday. December corn gained 8 ¼ cents to 431 ¾, while March futures added 7 cents to 445 ¼.
• The corn market typically sees selling pressure as futures contracts reach first notice day. Basis contracts need to be priced or rolled, and that triggers selling pressure in the market. The window likely passed yesterday, allowing the market to recover from the selling pressure.
• While the Commitment of Traders report information is behind due to the government shutdown on information, market participants are relying on estimates to determine money flow in the market. Estimates are that fund traders are holding a 100,000-contract net short position in the corn market. Funds have stayed short the market with the current heavy supply projection.
• Corn export sales pace is currently running 55% ahead of last year and likely one of the best starts to a marketing year on record. USDA forecasts total exports sales to reach 3.075 BB for 2025-26, but the current sales have reached 39% of that total, ahead of the 5-year average of 34% complete.
• Seasonally, the corn market looks to trend higher into the end of the year with a possible post-harvest rally as producers have found storage for the harvested bushels, and extra bushels have worked into the pipeline.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday with light volume and support from additional Chinese purchases. November soybeans gained 6-3/4 cents to $11.31-1/2 while March gained 6 cents to $11.40-3/4. December soybean meal gained $0.10 to $317.10 while December soybean oil gained 0.57 cents to 50.87 cents.
• Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that China was on track to meet their commitment to buy 12 mmt of soybeans by the end of the year. Since yesterday, China purchased at least 10 U.S. cargoes of soybeans despite them being more expensive than Brazilian beans. With current know soybean purchases, China is approximately covered 22% of the 12 MMT goal.
• Secretary Rollins stated that a U.S.–China deal could be signed within the next week or so. The agreement may include the removal of remaining tariffs on U.S. soybeans and could pave the way for increased private-sector purchases, not just sales to state-owned COFCO.
• Brazil soybean planting at 81% complete, with favorable weather in key central regions supporting emergence and early growth.
• The current USDA export target of 1.635 BB for the marketing year is currently too high as total export sales are trending at only 31% of that target, which is a 20-year low, and behind the 5-year average of 46% of the USDA target for this time of the marketing year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed on both sides of neutral today. December Chicago gained 1-3/4 cents to 529, Kansas City was up 4 at 517-1/4, and MIAX lost 3-1/2 to close at 576-1/2. Early gains were the result of following the bean market higher (after talk that China purchased 12-15 cargoes of U.S. soybeans yesterday). The fade in the U.S. Dollar Index was also supportive. However, wheat closed off of earlier highs, again following the trend in the soybean market.
• Australia is expected to see cooler and wetter conditions through early December. This could slow wheat harvest in the regions of South Australia, Victoria, and Queensland.
• LSEG commodities research has increased their estimate of Argentina’s 25/26 wheat production by 8% to 21.0 mmt. This is said to be due to better than anticipated weather late in the season, as well as good soil moisture. Additionally, they raised their estimate of Australia’s 25/26 production 2.3% to 35.6 mmt because of healthy satellite vegetation imagery.
• A feed group from South Korea has reportedly purchased 131,300 mt of milling wheat from the U.S. and Canada. The purchase was split between 91,300 mt sourced from the U.S., with the balance coming from Canada.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures saw limited movement today, with December down 6 cents to close at $15.87.
• Spot cheese closed down 0.25 cents at $1.52625/lb, while spot whey also declined, losing 0.75 cents to settle at $0.7325/lb.
• Spot butter closed up 2 cents at $1.450/lb, while spot powder gave back 1.75 cents to settle at $1.1425/lb.
• Class IV futures traded mostly lower today, with December the exception, gaining 10 cents to close at $13.50.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg