CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn closed with moderate gains on wheat strength and solid demand tone. March futures gained 5 cents to close at 450, and May futures added 4 ¼ cents to 457 ½.
• Corn futures posted a strong technical close by reversing off session lows to close above 450 and the 200-day MA for the second time since June. Follow-through trade going into the end of the week will be key in the corn market.
• Total corn inspections as of Nov. 27 total 747 mb, up 71% over last year. The USDA export target for the 2025-26 marketing year for exports is 3.075 billion. The current sales pace is running nearly 240 mb ahead of pace.
• Concerns regarding a potential escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine helped support the wheat market on Tuesday. Spillover strength from wheat helped support corn futures.
• US Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced on Tuesday that the Trump Administration will announce a “bridge payment” for US farmers next week. This is designed to provide short-term relief while longer term trade and aid packages are finalized.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day, and the soybean charts continue to show a potential head and shoulders which could point to prices below $11.00. For the day, January soybeans lost 3-1/4 cents to $11.24-3/4 while March lost 3 cents to $11.35. January soybean meal lost $2.50 to $308.60 and January soybean oil gained 0.29 cents to 52.35 cents.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report was not particularly supportive for soybeans with inspections totaling 920k tons, which compared to 809k tons the previous week and 2,110k a year ago. Top buyers were Italy, Egypt, and Mexico.
• Some pressure today may have come from favorable South American weather. There had previously been concerns over spotty rainfall in Brazil, but heavy rains have fallen in both central and northern Brazil improving soil moisture levels. Argentinian weather has been favorable as well.
• Brazilian soybean planting is reported at 89% complete by AgRural which compared to 81% a week ago and 91% a year ago at this time. Despite good South American weather, StoneX has trimmed its outlook for Brazilian soybean production to 177.2 mmt which is down 0.9% from their previous estimate.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat had an up-day, with March Chicago gaining 6 cents to 541, Kansas City up 6-1/4 at 533, and MIAX closing 4-3/4 higher at 580-3/4. The rally could be linked to comments by Russian President Putin that his county may sever Ukraine’s sea access. This comes as a response to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian vessels, and the news likely caused some short covering in wheat futures.
• European Union soft wheat exports totaled 9.66 mmt as of November 28. This is down 4.7% compared to last year.
• Although Argentina’s wheat harvest is expected to have record yields and production, lower protein levels could reduce much of the crop to feed grade.
• Argus has estimated Russia’s 26/27 wheat crop at 86.5 mmt. That would be down from the 88.4 mmt crop in the 25/26 season and is closer to the five-year average at 86.4 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw the GDT price index fall 4.30% to it’s lowest level since January 2024.
• The Global Dairy Trade was lower for the seventh event in a row. Global prices continue to fall to get in line with the US market.
• The spot cheese block/barrel average was red again today, hitting a new low for the year at $1.4675/lb.
• Spot butter caught a rare up day, regaining 1.50c to $1.46/lb.
• Milk futures were mostly green, catching a bounce on oversold conditions. The short term trend remains sharply down.

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Author

John Heinberg