TFM Midday Update 12-4-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher across the board at midday. December 2025 futures are 3-½ cents higher at $4.35. March 2026 futures are 2-¼ cents higher at 445-¾.
President Trump’s proposal to significantly roll back fuel-economy standards for vehicles added pressure to corn and soybean markets. Changes to these standards could negatively influence ethanol and biodiesel demand.
Weekly ethanol production for the week ending November 28 hit a new all-time high, averaging 331 million gallons per day, up 5% from a year ago. Corn usage for ethanol totaled 112 million bushels last week, keeping the current pace ahead of USDA’s marketing-year target.

Soybeans are offering a small positive performance at midday. January 2026 futures are 6-¼ cents higher to $11.22. March 2026 futures are 6 cents higher to $1131-½.
A growing volume of U.S. soybean shipments is headed to China, with deliveries expected to continue through December. Six bulk cargo vessels are scheduled to depart Gulf Coast terminals by mid-month, with additional shipments anticipated later in the year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that China remains on track to fulfill its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of February 2026, a shift from earlier remarks that had targeted completion by year-end.

Wheat futures have all slipped lower at midday. December Chicago wheat is 5-¼ cents lower at $5.32-½. December Kansas City wheat is 3 cents lower at $5.18.
SovEcon reports that Russian wheat export values have declined roughly $4 since mid-November, now trading around $228–$230 per ton. The slide may reflect competition from Argentina, where a bumper harvest has pushed export offers down to about $208 per ton.
LSEG commodities research estimates Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat production at 22.8 million metric tons, unchanged from its previous forecast. Ukraine’s agriculture ministry reports that roughly 4.7 million hectares of winter wheat have been planted.

Matthew Lucas