TFM Midday Update 12-5-2025

CORN

Corn futures have turned lower at midday amid concerns over rising global competition and increasing alternative feed production that could limit demand. December corn is down at 4.37.
Several Ukrainian ports have reportedly reduced grain intake due to ongoing Russian attacks and a shortage of locomotives, pushing Ukraine’s corn exports well below year-ago levels. These disruptions have widened the U.S. export window, and the recent two-week break in the U.S. dollar has further improved U.S. competitiveness.
Ukraine’s corn harvest is 78% complete, significantly behind last year’s 95% at this time.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s planting at 44% complete, with conditions improving 3% from last week to 79% good to excellent, compared with 26% a year ago.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday despite this morning’s flash sale to China. Futures are mixed, with soybeans and soybean meal weaker while soybean oil posts slight gains. January soybeans are trading lower at 11.12 ½.
USDA confirmed the sale of 462,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2025/26.
The White House continues to signal confidence that China will fulfill the 12-million-ton agreement by the end of February, but the slow purchasing pace and limited confirmations have not been enough to spark a significant rally.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that Argentina’s soybean planting is 44.7% complete, with 61% of the crop rated good to excellent, down from 69% a year ago.

Wheat is trading lower at midday as traders weigh ongoing Ukraine–Russia tensions, ample global supplies, and sluggish export demand. December Chicago wheat is trading lower at 5.38.
Putin announced that he is seeking additional territory in eastern Ukraine, and peace talks have stalled.
S. winter wheat under drought has increased 4 points to 35%, compared with 29% at this time last year.
With confirmed larger supplies in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, global export competition remains strong. Wheat will likely need fresh bullish news or spillover support from other grains to extend any rally.

Lauren VandenLangenberg