CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite strong selling pressure in the soybean market, the corn market stayed resilient with only marginal losses. March lost 2 ½ cents to 444 ¾, May gave back 2 ¼ cents to 452 ¼. For the week, March corn lost 3 cents.
• Strong demand has been the support under the corn market with a record start to the export season and above above-average pace in corn usage for ethanol. With current exports and shipments, the US is on pace to export 3.0+ billion bushels of corn in the marketing year for the first time ever.
• The USDA will release the December WASDE report on December 9. The December report is typically a less volatile report, but with the government shut down, and lack of October report, the December report may be open to additional changes which could bring volatility.
• South American weather for is lacking overall concerns at this moment. Argentina corn crop could be subject to heat risks going into the end of the year, which could impact productions.
• American Petroleum Institute (API) and ethanol groups are joining forces to help pressure the Trump administration and Congress regarding improving policy regarding year-round E15 and reform of small refinery exceptions.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were significantly lower to end the week in what was most likely technical trade as the head and shoulders pattern seems to be completing. January soybeans were down 14-1/4 cents to $11.05-1/4 while March was down 12-3/4 cents to $11.16. January soybean meal was down $3.8- to $307.40 and January soybean oil was down 0.10 cents to 51.69 cents.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 462,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China for the 25/26 marketing year. Despite this and other recent sales, China is still not close to meeting its commitment of 12 mmt of purchases before year’s end which is likely worrying traders.
• Estimates for next week’s WASDE report see US soybean ending stocks rising by 16 mb to 306 mb likely due to a decrease in export demand. World ending stocks are called slightly higher to 122.7 mmt. In South America, Argentinian soybean production is expected to be steady at 48.6 mmt while Brazil’s is slightly higher at 175.4 mmt.
• For the week, January soybeans lost 32-1/2 cents and March lost 30 cents. January soybean meal lost $11.30, and that chart looks bearish as well. January soybean oil lost 0.36 cents. If January soybeans complete their head and shoulders and fill their lower gap, prices could fall to $10.63.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed neutral to lower across the board as they remain relatively rangebound, with a general lack of market moving news. Paris milling wheat futures also continue to be in a downtrend, offering no support to their US counterparts. March Chicago lost 4-1/2 cents to 535-3/4, Kansas City was down 2-3/4 at 531-1/4, and MIAX was unchanged at 573.
• According to the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is now 45% complete and yields are also said to be excellent. Furthermore, Argentine wheat export values are said to currently be the world’s cheapest, providing resistance to the futures market.
• On another bearish note, the French wheat crop is rated 96% good to excellent. This rating is 10% above that of a year ago. And with larger crops anticipated in Argentina, Canada, and Australia too, upside price movement may be limited.
• The United Nations has indicated that globally, food prices have declined for the third month in a row, with November down 1.2% versus October. Additionally, they are down 20% from the peak in March 2022, just after the Russia / Ukraine war began.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures finished out the week in mixed fashion. The October contract saw the largest price improvement of 14 cents to close at $17.69.
• Spot cheese continues to move lower, losing 2.375 cents to close at $1.39625/lb. Whey was unchanged for a second day at $0.7450/lb.
• Class IV futures were quiet on the day with low volume trading. Front month contracts are still holding below $14 while deferred months trade higher.
• Spot butter improved nearly a penny to $1.4775/lb while powder posted a gain of half a cent to close out the week at $1.17/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg