TFM Midday Update 12-15-2025

CORN

Corn futures are lower to start the week with March futures down 3 cents currently at 438.
Weaker soybean futures and rising export competition have corn on the defensive to start the week. Softer cash values from the Black Sea region, along with a strong Argentine crop, are expected to compete with U.S. corn exports, which have been off to a strong start.
Crude oil fell to a two-month low this morning after OPEC+ members announced they will not pause output increases until the first quarter of 2026. Combined with the potential for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, the outlook suggests global oil supplies could remain ample.

Soybean futures traded down to seven-week lows to start the week as lack of a major weather threat in South America has kept pressure on the market. January soybean futures are currently down 6-1/2 cents trading near 1070.
On Monday morning, USDA reported private export sales of 136,000 mt of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year, marking the fourth consecutive trading day with a flash soybean sale to China.
Catch-up data released by the CFTC on Friday showed managed money held a net long position of more than 229,000 soybean contracts in the week ended November 18. This positioning coincided with the recent highs in soybean futures and stands just shy of the record long seen in 2012.

Wheat futures are lower to start the week with March CBOT wheat down 5 cents trading near 524, March KC wheat down 6 cents trading near 512 and March spring wheat down 4 cents trading near 556.
Favorable growing conditions across the Southern Hemisphere are expected to generate ample wheat production, increasing competition with U.S. wheat on the global export market in the months ahead.
Ongoing dryness in parts of Europe and the Black Sea region could impact winter wheat development if moisture does not improve as crops approach dormancy break.

Keegan Madigan