TFM Midday Update 12-18-2025

CORN

Corn futures have found positive territory at midday. March 2026 futures are 2-½ cents higher $4.43. May 2026 futures are 3 cents higher at $4.50-¾. December 2026 futures are 1 cent higher at $4.61-½.
Domestic ethanol production surged to a fresh record in the week ending December 12, with daily output averaging 1.131 million barrels. The momentum has been strong, as the prior five-week average held a robust 1.102 million barrels per day. Despite the elevated grind, ethanol stocks slipped about 1% on the week.
The EPA announced Wednesday afternoon that it expects to finalize biofuel policy rules in the first quarter of 2026. Biofuel markets are looking for clearer direction from the current administration.

Soybeans have continued their recent losing streak despite a flash export sale this morning. At midday, January 2026 futures have shed 5 cents to trade at $10.53-¾. March 2026 futures are 5-¼ cents lower at $10.63-½. November 2026 futures are 3 cents lower at $10.72.
This morning, the USDA reported a soybean sale of 114,000 metric tons, or roughly 4.2 million bushels, to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Flash sales have appeared almost daily over the past week, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now expects China to fulfill its 12 MMT soybean purchase commitment by the end of February.

Wheat futures are higher across the board at midday. Chicago wheat is 1-½ cents higher at $5.07-¾. Kansas City wheat is 7-¼ cents higher at $5.15. MIAX wheat is 7 cents higher at $5.69.
Exporters canceled 132,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat sales to China, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. While the headline was viewed as bearish, traders noted the cancellation does little to change the broader picture with ample global wheat supplies limiting its overall impact.
COFCO International said it is loading its first bulk commercial shipment of wheat from Argentina to China, opening a new trade route between the two countries.

Matthew Lucas