TFM Midday Update 12-19-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as there has been no official USDA confirmation of China purchases of U.S. corn. March corn is lower at 4.43.
The U.S. corn market gained strength this week amid rumors that China has been purchasing U.S. corn, a plausible scenario given that U.S. prices are currently the most competitive. Additional rumors suggest that wet weather during the latter half of China’s harvest may have damaged crop quality, though these reports remain unconfirmed.
Dr. Cordonnier lowered his estimate for Brazil’s corn crop by 1 million tons earlier this week, citing November dryness in Rio Grande do Sul. He continues to warn of potential safrinha planting delays next spring due to a slower-than-average soybean planting pace in key safrinha-growing regions.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s planting progress at 69.5%, with crop conditions rated 88% good to excellent—well above last year’s 38% at this time.

Soybeans remain under pressure during midday trading after SinoGrain sold only 33% of the 550,000 tons of reserve beans offered, signaling weaker demand compared to previous auctions. The entire soybean complex is trading lower at midday, with January soybeans down to 10.49 ½.
USDA confirms the sale of 134,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 25/26.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that Argentina’s planting is 67.3% complete, compared with 70% at this time last year.
There is potential for another very large Brazilian soybean crop in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, as recent rains have been favorable and moisture continues to move into southern growing regions.

Wheat is trading mixed at midday following reports that China canceled a U.S. purchase, which was reportedly switched to Argentina. March Chicago wheat is up at 5.08 ½, while Kansas City is down at 5.16.
Regarding U.S. winter wheat, the latest drought monitor shows dryness expanding in Oklahoma, with the share of winter wheat under drought rising 2% to 36%. While a significant warm-up is expected across the Plains, LSEG warned that another cold snap in the southern Plains is possible in January, which could increase winterkill risk.
SovEcon raised its estimate for Russia’s 2025 wheat production to 88.8 million tons from 88.6 million, citing improved yields in Siberia, while leaving its 2026 production forecast unchanged at 83.8 million tons.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that Argentina’s harvest is 73.3% complete and has raised its production estimate by 1.6 million tons to 27.1 million tons.

Lauren VandenLangenberg