Looking Ahead to 2026

What’s Happened…

2025 is quickly winding down. Attention will turn to 2026, and focus will center on growing conditions throughout the world. Grain and oilseed supplies are deemed adequate and, consequently, prices remain range–bound to weaker. Good genetics, tillage practices, excellent farming practices, and most importantly good weather conditions (for the most part) have helped to produce record crops throughout the world. Yet, for both end users and producers, a balanced approach in the year ahead is warranted. Weather is and will continue to be the most important factor that can affect crop production.  As weather changes, so do perceptions of world supplies and, consequently, prices.

Why this is Important…

Marketing never takes a day off. While it is easy to assume continuous good crops, there are many variables that can impact production and quickly change that view. Markets tend to move on perception, momentum, and attitude. When combined, these currently suggest that prices will remain mostly range-bound for row crops in the immediate future. Beyond that, it gets murky.  

In a simple view, one of two scenarios is likely to occur. Crop production is as expected, and prices remain mostly range-bound. Or, something occurs to create a much smaller or larger crop. In the latter, a significant price decline or rally is likely to occur. While this may be stating the obvious, preparation for such moves at this time of year is critical to executing strategy. This is done through rehearsing the future as to what might happen and knowing in advance what your plan will be and how you will execute. 

Producers should assume normal production. If you don’t, then why farm? This means you’ll want to look at selling both 2025 (on hand) and 2026 (yet to be produced) crops when price rallies occur. Waiting to see what happens could be financially painful by late summer when it becomes a foregone conclusion that big Northern Hemisphere crops are at hand. At that point, it is too late, as prices are likely to search for a bottom. Consider covering sales with option purchases to prepare yourself for adverse weather conditions which may lead to higher prices. 

In recent years, buyers have enjoyed low prices. It could be a mistake to assume this will be the case again for the upcoming growing season. Those who buy should consider continuously doing so on price dips, while also shifting risk by utilizing forward contracts or paper tools such as call options or futures.

What can you do about it?

Engage in conversations with those who can guide you to make informed decisions. Keep your marketing balanced, which means using the proper tools to shift risk and take advantage of opportunities. Assuming good crop production in most years is likely a correct assumption. It’s been some number of years since supply shortages have concerned the markets. Yet, good marketing starts with objective planning and preparation for anything to happen.  

Find out what works for you… 

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic. 

About the Author: With the wisdom of over 36 years at Total Farm Marketing and following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of Brokerage Solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the markets and marketing tools, a strong listener, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with their decisions. 

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

Author

Bryan Doherty