CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buying jumped into the grain market, led by outside market strength in a risk-on trade to start the day. Corn futures finished with moderate to strong gains to start the week. March futures gained 7 cents to 444 ½, while May added 6 ½ cents to 452.
• USDA released the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning. For the week ending January 1, U.S. exporters shipped 1.207 MMT (47.5 mb). Current corn inspections are trending 65% over the 2024-25 market year for this time frame.
• USDA released back-dated export sales for the week ending December 25 on Monday. For that week, new net corn sales totaled 756,000MT (29.8 mb). Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn for the week. Current export sales are trending 30% over last year in this time frame.
• South American weather stays overall supportive for corn production in Brazil and Argentina. The forecast in Argentina is looking at a drying window in the southern portion of the corn-growing regions, which could impact yield development.
• The corn market will be looking forward to the January 12 WASDE and Crop Production reports. This will be the last Crop Production report where the USDA can adjust yield estimates until the September Grain Stocks report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher to kick off the first full week of the new year. Futures may have posted a temporary bottom after selling off on Friday but then recovered most of its losses. March soybeans gained 16-1/4 cents to $10.62, while November gained 12-4/5 cents to $10.75-1/2. March soybean meal gained $3.90 to $299.90 while bean oil gained 0.57 cents to 49.87 cents.
• Today’s export data helped support soybeans with sales at 43.5 million bushels, but shipments were the largest since November at 44.8 million bushels. Export sales for the week ending December 25 were strong at 1,178k tons, which were down 31% year over year.
• CFTC data was released for the week ending December 23, and it showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 37,375 contracts, which reduced their net long position to 110,403 contracts. They sold 12,853 contracts of meal leaving them short 6,633 contracts. They sold 26,078 contracts of bean oil increasing their net short position to 67,118 contracts.
• U.S. soybean crushings for the month of November were seen at 220.5 million bushels according to the USDA, which was down slightly from October but was up 5% from the same period last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed Monday’s trading session with gains across all three classes, supported by spillover strength from soybeans and corn. March Chicago wheat rose to 5.13, while Kansas City wheat also posted gains, with the March contract climbing to 5.21.
• Wheat export inspections totaled 7 million bushels, falling below expectations and well short of the 16 million bushels needed per week to meet the USDA’s forecast. Year-to-date inspections have reached 561 million bushels, up 20% from last year, compared to the USDA’s projected increase of 9%.
• The southern Plains are expected to remain warm this week, with the 6-10 day forecast predicting below-normal precipitation. While there is a slight chance of rain later this week, the major factor to consider is the absence of any signs of a significant polar vortex affecting the U.S. Plains over the next two weeks. This reduces the risk of winterkill in wheat crops.
• Early-week concerns over recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure seem to have eased, as wheat futures extended a short-covering rebound overnight following last week’s decline. Ukrainian exports have remained sluggish and are expected to stay slow as the war continues.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A 4c lower bid in the cheese block market kept futures on the defensive on Monday. Class III and IV were red across the board.
• Both Q1 and Q2 2026 Class III milk futures fell to new lows as the market may be ready for another push lower in this bear cycle.
• Spot butter fell 3c to $1.3450/lb, marking its lowest close since 2021. Despite lower inventories than a year ago, butter remains under pressure.
• The lone bright spot on the day was the fact that powder gained a half cent to finish at $1.18/lb while whey was steady.
• News this week includes a Global Dairy Trade auction Tuesday and October dairy exports data released on Thursday.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill