CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures failed to hold early-session gains as selling pressure in the soybean market intensified, pushing corn prices into marginal losses for the session. March corn futures slipped ½ cent to 444, and May corn futures lost ¾ cents to 451 ¼.
• March corn futures posted a weak technical close, failing to push through the key 200-day moving average and finishing at the bottom of the session range. The weak close could leave the market vulnerable to additional selling pressure heading into Wednesday’s trade.
• South American weather remains mostly favorable for this season’s corn and soybean crops. Crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, raised his forecast for the Argentina corn crop production estimate to 54 MMT, up 2MMT from his last estimate
• The latest Commitment of Traders report released Monday afternoon revealed that managed money has moved to a slight short position in the corn market at a net short of 23,584. Commitment of Traders reports have now caught up on back reports since the government shutdown.
• The corn market will be focused on the January 12 USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. This will be the final Crop Production report in which the USDA can adjust yield estimates until the September Grain Stocks report. Private analyst projections are also expected to emerge throughout the week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower in a reversal that saw prices retreat from gains of as much as 6 cents. Futures were rebuffed at the 200-day moving average and closed near their lows. March lost 5-3/4 cents to $10.56-1/4 while November lost 7-3/4 cents to $10.67-3/4. March soybean meal lost $0.40 to $299.50 and March soybean oil lost 49.40 cents.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 336,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 25/26 marketing year. While China as a number 1 buyer has been encouraging, sales to other countries have been lacking, which has impacted demand negatively.
• Yesterday’s export sales were good for soybeans at 981k tons, which compared to 774k last week and 1,296k tons a year ago. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Taiwan. Export sales have been steady, but domestic demand for crush was strong with 220.5 mb crushed in November.
• StoneX has increased its estimate for the Brazilian 25/26 soybean crop to 177.6 million metric tons, which would be a 0.2% increase from its December.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended Tuesday’s trade mixed following yesterday’s gains, unable to maintain momentum as other grains failed to provide support and there was little to no new bullish fundamental news. Chicago wheat is trading lower, with the March contract at 5.10 ½, while Kansas City wheat is seeing minimal gains, with the March contract at 5.21 ¾.
• The latest Commitment of Traders report showed managed money traders net sold 2,961 wheat contracts, leaving them net short 94,626 contracts.
• Market participants are looking ahead to the USDA January reports, which are expected to provide the first estimates of U.S. winter wheat plantings for the 2026 crop. Preliminary estimates suggest acreage could decline by nearly 1 million acres from YA of 32.25 million, which would be the lowest level in six years if confirmed.
• Ukraine’s wheat exports remain slow amid continued port attacks, with December shipments totaling just 619,000 tons, down from 958,000 tons in November.
• The 6–10 day outlook continues to show below-normal precipitation chances across the Plains, though there is some potential for scattered showers later in the week. The 8–14 day forecast calls for near-normal precipitation with temperatures remaining above normal, and no significant cold snap is indicated in the two-week outlook.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices were higher on Tuesday with February leading the way with gains of 24 cents to close at $15.24.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.3750/lb while whey gave back a penny to move to $0.7150/lb.
• Class IV futures were higher today as well, ranging from 1 to 18 cents of gains throughout the calendar year.
• After hitting a new low yesterday, spot butter was up a penny to $1.3550/lb. Powder garnered 1.75 cents in gains to move to $1.1975/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Index took a nice jump today, but both cheese and butter production remain high. Please see below for details.

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Author

Brandon Doherty