CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• As the market moves closer to Monday’s January WASDE report, fund flow supported the grain complex. Strength in wheat and soybeans helped lift corn futures, with March corn up 2¾ cents to 446¾ and May gaining 2¾ cents to 454.
• March corn has remained range-bound since October, trading roughly between 435 and 450. Monday’s WASDE could provide the catalyst needed for a breakout in either direction.
• Weekly ethanol production slipped for the week ending January 2. Total production reached 1.098 million barrels/day, down slightly from last week. A total of 109 mb of corn was used in production last week and is trending ahead of the USDA target for the marketing year.
• The USDA has largely caught up on delayed export sales reporting following the government shutdown. On Thursday morning, the agency will release sales data for the week ending January 1, with expectations calling for new corn sales between 750,000 MT and 1.0 MMT.
• The corn market will be focused on the January 12 USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports. This will be the final Crop Production report in which the USDA can adjust yield estimates until the September Grain Stocks report. Private analyst projections are also expected to emerge throughout the week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished the session sharply higher following Tuesday’s downside reversal, posting a technically constructive day. Futures took out the prior session’s highs without violating yesterday’s lows. March soybeans gained 10 ¾ cents to close at $10.52 ¾, while November advanced 7 ½ cents to $10.75 ¼. March soybean meal rallied $5.90 to $305.40, while March soybean oil edged 0.09 cents lower to 49.31 cents.
• Support likely stemmed from updated weather forecasts calling for hot and dry conditions across central and southern Brazil through the remainder of January. Growing conditions had previously been near ideal, with StoneX currently pegging Brazil’s total soybean production at 177.6 mmt.
• China was an active buyer of U.S. soybeans again, bringing total purchases to just under 10 mmt, approaching its previously stated commitment of 12 mmt. While China has booked some Brazilian soybeans, rising prices in Brazil have reduced that origin’s competitiveness in recent weeks.
• Weekly export sales were solid, with soybean sales totaling 981,000 metric tons, up from 774,000 tons last week but below the 1.296 mmt sold during the same week last year. Top buyers included China, Egypt, and Taiwan. Export demand remains steady, while domestic demand continues to be supported by strong crush margins, highlighted by November crush of 220.5 mb.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All three wheat classes were subject to short covering on Wednesday, driven by poor state conditions out of the Plains states. March Chicago closed at $8.14-00, up 7-½ cents, March KC finished 10-00 cents higher to $5.31-½, and March Minneapolis was unchanged from the day prior at $7.70-¼.
• Updated good-to-excellent ratings showed notable deterioration from November levels. Colorado and Nebraska posted the steepest declines, down 26% and 14%, respectively. Oklahoma followed with a 9% drop, Texas fell 6%, and Kansas slipped 2%.
• Weekly wheat export sales for the week ending January 1 are estimated to fall somewhere between 200,000-500,000 mt for 2025/26 and between 0-100,000 mt for 2026/27.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised their Argentine wheat production estimate for 2025/26 to 27.8 mmt. This is up from the group’s previous forecast of 21.7 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III prices continued higher during today’s trade, with the February contract up 18 cents to close at $15.42.
• The spot cheese market saw modest gains, up 0.75 cents to close at $1.3825/lb, while spot whey posted losses, down 1.5 cents to close at $0.700/lb.
• Class IV futures continued their strength, with the February contract up 17 cents to close at $13.80.
• Spot butter lost momentum, falling 3.25 cents to close at $1.3225/lb, while spot powder continued higher, gaining 2.0 cents to close at $1.2175/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg