CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Quiet day in the corn market as prices treaded water before Monday’s USDA WASDE report. March corn had a narrow 2 ½ cent trading range and finished with mild weakness. March futures lost ¾ cent to 446, while May futures finished unchanged at 454.
• The grain markets are likely to remain choppy going into the end of the week as trade prepares for Monday’s USDA WASDE and Grain Stocks report.
• USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 1, exports recorded new sales of 378,000 Mt (14.9 mb). This was a market year low and below analysts’ range of expectations. Despite the disappointing week, total corn export sales are trending 30% ahead of last year’s pace.
• For Monday’s USDA WASDE report, analysts are forecasting the USDA to lower corn yield to 183.9 bu/acre, down 2.1 bu/acre from the December report. That total would leave corn production at 16.550 billion bushels for the year, nearly 1 billion bushels over the current 2023 record production.
• On Friday, the Supreme Court is expected to issue an opinion—not a ruling—on the Trump administration’s global tariffs. Analysts believe that if the tariffs are struck down, the outcome would be bearish for agricultural markets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower as they failed again to break the 200-day moving average to the upside. March soybeans lost 5-3/4 cents to $10.61-1/4 while November lost 2-1/4 cents to $10.73. March soybean meal lost $1.80 to $303.60 while March soybean oil gained 0.14 cents to 49.45 cents with support from higher crude oil.
• Estimates for next week’s WASDE report see soybean yield called lower by 0.3 bpa to 52.7 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to be unchanged, but Brazilian production is expected to increase. Brazilian production is seen at 176.5 mmt up from 175.0 mmt in December.
• This morning, private exporters reported a sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/26 marketing year. China has been a consistent buyer and has nearly met its commitment of 12 mmt. While the purchases were not fully completed by the end of 2025, they are expected to be fulfilled by the end of the marketing year.
• Weekly export sales were solid, with soybean sales totaling 981,000 metric tons, up from 774,000 tons last week but below the 1.296 mmt sold during the same week last year. Top buyers included China, Egypt, and Taiwan. Export demand remains steady, while domestic demand continues to be supported by strong crush margins, highlighted by November crush of 220.5 mb.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures were mixed on the day with March Chicago wheat finishing unchanged at $5.18. March KC wheat ended 1-1/4 cents lower closing at $5.30-1/4, while March Spring wheat futures added ¾ of a cent to close at $5.71-1/4.
• The recent short-covering rally in wheat stalled on Thursday as futures ran into technical resistance. March Kansas City wheat retreated after briefly trading above the 100-day moving average, a level that has served as formidable upside resistance over the past year.
• While global wheat supplies are expected to increase in Monday’s USDA report, U.S. winter wheat planted area is projected to decline from 2025 levels and rank among the lowest in the past century.
• Thursday’s Export Sales report showed a modest rebound in old-crop wheat sales from the prior week’s marketing-year low, though at just 4.4 mb they still ranked as the third-lowest weekly total of the season. Shipments were also notably weak at 6.3 mb, the second smallest weekly volume of the marketing year, trailing only the opening week in early June.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Nearby Class III futures fell hard today with February giving back 34 cents to move to $15.08.
• The block/barrel average fell 1.75 cents today to a new low of $1.3650/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.70/lb.
• Class IV contracts held double digit gains well out into 2026 with the second month settling up 11 cents at $13.91.
• Spot butter gave back two cents to move to a new low of $1.3025/lb. Conversely, powder was up 3 cents to hit $1.2475/lb.
• Total dairy exports were up 10% year-over-year in the month of October with another great month for cheese and butter.

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Author

Amanda Brill