TFM Morning Update 01-14-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher following Monday’s disastrous WASDE report and may be carving out a bottom. March corn is up 4 cents to $4.23-3/4 while December is up 2-1/2 cents to $4.48-1/4.
Projections for the US weekly EIA report see ethanol production higher than last week at 1.105 million barrels per day compared to 1.098 last week and stockpiles at 24.126m bbl compared to 23.652 the previous week.
Overall pressure comes from a likely record large corn crop in the US according to the USDA while Brazilian weather has been nearly perfect, and Argentinian corn production is estimated to be just 2.5 mmt smaller than their record breaking crop from 2019.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning and found some support around the $10.35 level after its sharp sell-off. March soybeans are up 6-1/4 cents to $10.45 while November is up 4 cents to $10.62-1/4. March soybean meal is up $1.00 to $292.60 and bean oil is up 0.31 cents to 51.51 cents.
NOPA soybean crush for the month of December is estimated at 224.81 million bushels. This would be the second highest crush on record and would be 4.1% above November’s 216.04 mb.
Yesterday, the USDA reported flash sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 25/26 marketing year while 152,204 tons of soybeans went to Mexico. Good export sales have been the biggest supportive factor.

All three wheat classes are higher to start the day, and wheat overall has held up relatively well during the sell-off in corn and soybeans. March Chicago wheat is up 1-1/2 cents to $5.12, KC wheat is up 1/4 cent to $5.19-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1/2 cent to $5.67.
Yesterday’s WASDE report from the USDA estimated U.S. 2025/26 wheat carryout at 926 million bushels, up 25 million from last month and above market expectations, largely reflecting lower feed usage.
On the global side, 2025/26 ending stocks were pegged at 278.3 million metric tons, up 3.4 million from December. Production was also raised, with Argentina up 3.5 million metric tons to 27.5 million and Russia increased by 2.0 million to 89.5 million metric tons.

Amanda Brill