CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn market stayed under pressure on Tuesday as the market is still digesting the bearish USDA crop production and Grain stocks report from Monday afternoon. March corn futures lost 1 ¾ cents to 419 ¾, and the May futures dropped 2 ¾ cents to 427 ¾.
• During Monday’s session, open interest jumped approximately 44,000 contracts in the corn market. Likely managed hedge funds opened new short positions with the bearish USDA report. It was estimated that fund sold nearly 50,000 net corn contracts on Monday with additional selling occurring with the weakness again on Tuesday.
• The bulk of the selling pressure occurred in the deferred and back-month contracts as the corn market removed carry out of the market given the large supply to work through over the coming months. December 26 corn futures closed under the key 450 price level of support during the session.
• Strong demand has been supportive for the corn market, and with the new large supply, market attention will remain focused on managing this ample availability. U.S. corn remains attractively priced on the export market and is expected to stay competitive well into spring, ahead of the South American harvest.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower following yesterday’s bearish WASDE report as funds continue selling pressure amid ugly technicals and fundamentals. March soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents to $10.38-3/4 while November lost 8-3/4 cents to $10.58-1/4. March soybean meal lost $6.70 to $291.60, and March soybean oil gained 0.93 cents to 51.20 cents, bolstered by higher crude oil.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish all around with the USDA increasing 25/26 ending stocks to 350 mb from 290 mb in December. Yield was unchanged at 53.0 bpa but harvested acreage was increased slightly, and U.S. soybean stocks were raised. World ending stocks were increased to 124.4 mmt from 122.4 mmt, Brazilian production was increased by 3 mmt to 178.0 mmt, and Argentinian production was unchanged at 48.5 mmt.
• U.S. soybean inspections for the week ending January 8 saw inspections strong at 1,530k tons, which compared to 984k tons the previous week and 1,357k a year ago. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Algeria. China was the largest buyer by a wide margin.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 0.6% complete as of January 8, which is slightly ahead of last year. The state of Mato Grosso leads the progress. The crop there is nearly made at this point, and it is unclear how much upcoming dry weather will impact the crop. Argentina is further behind and could see yield reductions if conditions turn hot and dry.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat finished the session lower in the winter classes but was mixed in the spring class. Continued pressure and downward momentum from yesterday’s WASDE report may be to blame. March Chicago lost 3/4 cent to 510-1/2, Kansas City slipped 7-1/4 cents to 519-1/2, but MIAX was up 3/4 cent at 566-1/2.
• The U.S. Plains are expected to experience a drier pattern over the next 7–10 days, which should provide support, primarily for winter wheat futures.
• According to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, Russian drone attacks targeted two ships carrying agricultural goods. While the vessels reportedly were not transporting wheat, the incident could still add a modest war premium to the market.
• IKAR has increased their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat exports by 2.4 mmt to 46.5 mmt. This is reportedly due to strong sales at the end of the year. For reference, the USDA left their estimate unchanged yesterday at 44.0 mmt. And according to Interfax, the Russian 2025 wheat harvest sits at 90 mmt – this compares to 82.6 mmt collected in 2024.
• Shipping data indicates that China imported 620,000 mt of wheat (combined) from Australia and Argentina in December. This is said to the result of China taking advantage of cheap global wheat prices. Australia provided 460,000 mt of that total, while Argentina supplied the remaining 160,000 mt; these are said to be the largest shipments to China from these nations since 2024 and 1997, respectively.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• February 2026 Class III milk fell 18c on Tuesday to close at $14.90. The contract hit an intraday low of $14.88, which is a new low for the move.
• A 2c lower offer in the spot powder trade kept Class IV futures under pressure. More premium is getting taken out of further out contracts.
• Whey caught a higher bid, closing up a penny to $0.71/lb. This continues to support Class III.
• Day-to-day volume has been light lately for milk futures, although February Class III saw nearly 1,000 contracts trade Tuesday.
• The 2026 Class III milk average finished Tuesday at $16.55/cwt.

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Author

Amanda Brill