TFM Morning Update 01-16-2026

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, January 19, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as the market continues to balance record production with strong demand. March corn is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.21-1/2 while December is up 1 cent to $4.47-3/4.
The International Grains Council underscored expectations for ample supplies on Thursday, raising its 2025/26 global corn production estimate by 15 million metric tons to 1.313 billion metric tons.
USDA reported several private export sales during the reporting period, including 500,302 metric tons of corn sold to unknown destinations and an additional 260,000 metric tons sold to Japan yesterday. U.S. export shipments will need to remain strong through the remainder of the marketing year to prevent inventories from becoming burdensome.

Soybean futures are slightly higher this morning. March is up 3-1/4 cents to $10.56-1/4 while November is up 3-1/2 cents to $10.67-3/4.
The U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association reported that its members crushed the second-largest monthly volume of soybeans on record in December, exceeding analyst expectations. NOPA estimated the crush at nearly 225 million bushels, up roughly 9 million bushels from the prior month.
Market sentiment was lifted by reports that the Trump administration plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining mandates near initial proposal levels while eliminating penalties on renewable fuel imports.

Wheat prices are trading higher across the board with March Chicago wheat up 4 cents to $5.14-3/4, KC up 5 cents to $5.22-1/4, and Minn wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $5.64-1/4.
Dry conditions and red-flag warnings across parts of northwestern Kansas, where hard red winter wheat is overwintering, have raised concerns about potential crop stress, with strong winds adding to near-term risk.
In its latest update, the Rosario Grain Exchange left its estimate of Argentine wheat production unchanged at 27.7 million metric tons, a figure that remains well above USDA’s forecast of 24.0 million. Meanwhile, Brazil’s CONAB trimmed its estimate of Brazilian wheat production by 0.1 million metric tons to 7.9 million, compared with USDA’s estimate of 8.0 million.

Matthew Lucas