TFM Morning Update 01-20-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning as the market continues to balance record production with strong demand. March corn is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.21-1/2 while December is up 1 cent to $4.47-3/4.
U.S. corn remains highly competitive on the global export market following the recent price break as seen by the seven flash corn sales this past week. That pricing advantage is expected to persist into late spring, before increased harvest pressure from South America begins to heighten global competition.
USDA export sales data as of January 8 show total U.S. corn commitments at 52.035 million metric tons, running 29% above the same week last year. That represents 64% of USDA’s full-year forecast, slightly ahead of the five-year average sales pace of 62%. Meanwhile, Foreign Agricultural Service shipment data place actual exports at 28.97 million metric tons, or 36% of USDA’s projection, compared with a 26% average shipping pace.

Soybean futures opened the day modestly lower, with March 2026 futures down 2 cents to trade at $10.55-3/4. November 2026 soybean futures are off 1-3/4 cents, trading at $10.67-1/4.
Soybean production in Brazil, the world’s largest exporter, is expected to rise 5% year over year to a record 183.79 million metric tons. Meanwhile, the U.S. share of China’s soybean imports fell to 15% in 2025 from 21% the previous year, while import shares from Brazil and Argentina increased, according to data released by Chinese customs authorities.
U.S. soybean crush surged in December to the second-highest monthly level on record. Processing capacity has expanded as companies invest to meet growing vegetable oil demand from biofuel producers, while plants also increased run rates in response to last fall’s bumper U.S. harvest.

The wheat complex opened the day mostly lower. March 2026 Chicago wheat is down 2-1/2 cents to trade at $5.15-1/2, while Kansas City wheat is off 3/4 of a cent at $5.26-1/2. MIAX spring wheat futures are slightly higher, up 1/4 of a cent at $5.67-1/2.
U.S. winter wheat crops across the central Plains are entering their typical dormancy period with little protective snow cover in place. With temperatures expected to turn bitterly cold in the coming weeks, the lack of insulation raises the risk of freeze damage.
The International Grains Council raised its estimate for Argentine wheat production by 4.2 million metric tons to a record 27.7 million. The group also lifted its Canadian wheat forecast by 3.4 million metric tons, adding further pressure to already ample global supply expectations.

Matthew Lucas