CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn markets started the week with a quiet, narrow trading range as futures finished mixed on the day. Despite good demand numbers, the large supply picture put pressure on the front end of the market. March corn finished 1 cent lower to 423 ¾, while the May contract slipped ¾ cent to 431 ¼.
• Volatility remains very low in the corn market as prices have been consolidating since last week’s USDA report. Daily trade has been in tight trading ranges. Tuesday’s trading range was 3 ½ cents on the March corn contract from high to low.
• USDA released the weekly Export Inspections report on Tuesday morning, delayed from Monday and the holiday. For the week ending January 15, weekly corn export inspections total 1.484 MMT (58.4 mb). Total inspections are 1.178 bb, up 55% over last year. The USDA is forecasting a year-over-year increase of 12%.
• The planting of the key Brazil second crop corn has begun planting as the Brazil producers have started soybean harvest. The Brazil corn crop is expected to be larger than last year with increased planted area. The weather is currently a non-factor at this time.
• The Argentina corn crop could be facing some short-term weather challenges with forecasts of hot and dry weather across parts of the growing region.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and retreated from earlier morning highs. March futures took out Friday’s high and did not take out the low, but pressure from outside global events eventually brought prices lower. March soybeans lost 4-3/4 cents to $10.53, while November lost 5 cents to $10.64. March soybean meal gained $1.60 to $291.60 and soybean oil lost 0.05 cents to 52.56 cents.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 190,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2025/2026 marketing year. Export demand has been consistent, but large global supplies have made it difficult to sustain a rally.
• Today’s export inspections report for the week ending January 15 was decent for soybeans at 49.1 million bushels. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 710 million bushels which is down 40% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating inspections down 16% this year.
• China has officially hit the 12 mmt purchase mark for its 2025 commitment in the trade truce. This was initially expected to be completed by the end of 2025. For 2026 it has pledged to purchase 25 mmt with another 25 mmt to follow the next year. China has re-emerged as the top buyer of U.S. soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in the red today, despite a sharp drop in the U.S. Dollar Index. The market could not hold onto early strength and succumbed to pressure from a severe decline in the stock market as well as falling Paris milling wheat futures values. As of writing, the Dow is down over 900 points, the NASDAQ down about 550, and the S&P down almost 150 – this selloff appears to have been spurred on by President Trump’s threat of increased tariffs against European nations that are in opposition to the U.S. purchase of Greenland.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 14.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 587 mb, which is up 20% from last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Talk that India may export up to 500,000 metric tons of wheat flour has pressured U.S. wheat futures. The news is viewed as particularly bearish given that India has maintained a ban on wheat and wheat product exports for the past three years, making any return to the export market a notable shift.
• According to SovEcon, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $226-$228/mt on a FOB basis. This is up $1-$3 from the week prior. However, Russian export values are still said to be the second cheapest in the world, behind Argentina.
• Algeria is reported to have purchased roughly 600,000 metric tons of wheat for February–March shipment at prices around $253–$254 per metric ton on a CNF basis, with Argentina believed to be the primary supplier. In addition, Saudi Arabia is said to have bought approximately 900,000 metric tons of wheat for April–May shipment, paying $258–$265 per metric ton CNF, with supplies believed to be sourced entirely from the Black Sea region.
• According to Chinese customs data, their imports of wheat and wheat flour during the month of December totaled 580,000 mt, up a whopping $273.4% for the month compared to a year ago. Nevertheless, year-to-date imports are down 64.4% year over year at 3.98 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed with nearby contracts closing higher and many deferred contracts losing some ground.
• Spot cheese jumped 2.25 cents to start the week, closing at $1.34625/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.7350/lb.
• Class IV contracts were either unchanged or higher today. February futures closed 11 cents higher at $13.97.
• Spot butter was up 5.50 cents today to move to $1.41/lb. Powder gained a half cent, settling at $1.26/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Auction saw the index climb 1.50%. Butter and the powder products were higher while cheese was lower.

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Author

Amanda Brill