TFM Midday Update 01-23-2026

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday on strong U.S. corn demand, with March corn up to 4.29.
Weekly export sales showed corn sales of 158 million bushels, well above expectations and the highest level in five years. Year-to-date commitments total 2.206 billion bushels, up 34% year over year, significantly exceeding the USDA’s forecast increase of 12%.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s planting at 93.1% complete, while crop conditions fell 12% this week to 52% good-to-excellent amid continued dryness in southern regions. Optimal water conditions declined 7% week over week.
LSEG raised its Argentina production forecast 6% to 57.9 million tons on a larger planted area, compared with the USDA at 53.0 million tons, but warned that below-normal rainfall in southern regions could limit yields as dryness persists. In Brazil, improved moisture will also be needed in Mato Grosso to support optimal planting conditions for the safrinha crop.

Soybeans are pushing higher at midday on increased short-term demand, with the entire soy complex posting gains. March soybeans are up to 10.69 ¼.
The weekly export sales report showed soybean sales of 90 million bushels, in line with expectations but the highest in two years. Year-to-date commitments total 1.214 billion bushels, down 22% year over year versus the USDA’s forecast decline of 16%.
Strength in the Brazilian real—up 3.5% against the U.S. dollar this month—is boosting U.S. export competitiveness ahead of Brazil’s harvest ramp-up.
South-central Brazil remains a key dryness concern, along with southern Argentina. Argentina’s planting is 96.2% complete, but crop conditions fell 8% this week to 53% good-to-excellent.
LSEG raised its Argentina production estimate 2% from its previous forecast to 47.5 million tons, though the USDA remains higher at 48.5 million tons on generally moderate January weather.

Wheat is continuing to push higher at midday as U.S. weather concerns remain a driving factor. March Chicago wheat is up to 5.23½, while March Kansas City wheat is up to 5.36.
Winter weather concerns are expanding across the U.S. into the weekend, raising the risk of winterkill as bitterly cold temperatures and additional winter storms move in. Winterkill risk is elevated in areas lacking adequate snow cover to protect winter wheat from Arctic conditions.
Weekly export sales showed wheat sales of 23 million bushels, in line with expectations, bringing year-to-date commitments to 768 million bushels—up 18% year over year versus the USDA’s forecast of a 9% increase.
SovEcon held its 2026 Russian production estimate unchanged at 83.8 million tons, but warned that ongoing cold temperatures through next week could prompt a revision.
LSEG raised its Argentina production estimate to 27.1 million tons, slightly below the USDA’s forecast of 27.5 million tons.

Lauren VandenLangenberg