TFM Morning Update 01-27-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading modestly higher to start the day after testing structural support near $4.27 overnight. March corn futures are up 1 cent at $4.29-1/4, while December corn futures are trading 1/2 cent higher at $4.55-1/2.
USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service reported corn export shipments of 1.51 million metric tons (59.45 million bushels) for the week ending January 22. That total was 1.63% higher than the prior week and 20.74% above the same week last year. Mexico was the top destination at 402,936 metric tons, followed by Japan at 265,122 metric tons and Spain at 210,763 metric tons.
Since September 1, 2025/26 marketing-year corn exports have reached 31.437 million metric tons (1.24 billion bushels), now running 53.35% above the same period last year.

Soybean futures are trading modestly higher this morning after retreating from short-term resistance near $10.70 yesterday. March soybean futures are up 1-1/2 cents at $10.63-1/4, while November soybeans are also 1-1/2 cents higher at $10.80-1/2.
China is expected to increase soybean imports from Brazil in the first half of 2026, supported by a bumper Brazilian harvest and competitive pricing. China’s move to lock in Brazilian cargoes could weigh on demand for U.S. soybeans once the North American export season ramps up in September.
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, is now expected to harvest a record 181 million metric tons of soybeans, according to AgRural, which raised its forecast from 180.4 million tons.

Wheat futures have started the day mixed. March Chicago wheat is up 3/4 of a cent at $5.23-1/4, while Kansas City wheat is down 1/2 cent at $5.29-1/4. MIAX spring wheat futures are 3/4 of a cent lower at $5.69.
Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 12.9 million bushels, bringing cumulative 2025/26 inspections to 600 million bushels, up 18% from last year. Inspections are currently running ahead of the pace implied by the USDA export forecast, with total 2025/26 wheat exports projected at 900 million bushels, a 9% increase from the prior year.
A record wheat harvest in Argentina has intensified competition in the global marketplace, with Argentine wheat currently the cheapest origin worldwide. In response, consultancy Expana recently cut its estimate for European Union 2025/26 soft wheat exports by 4% to 28.8 million metric tons. The shift is likely to weigh on export prospects from both the Black Sea and the United States as well.

Matthew Lucas