CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures pushed higher on Tuesday, and news of a possible trade agreement with India helped support the grain markets. March corn gained 2 ¾ cents to 428 ½, and May futures added 2 ¼ cents to 435 ¾. Overall, corn futures have trended higher since the sharp WASDE sell-off.
• According to the USDA, corn used for ethanol in December was seen at 488.3 million bushels, which was up 1.84% from December 2024, and mills consumed 534 mb of corn, which was a 1.3% increase over last year.
• StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 25/26 first-crop corn production to 26.59 mmt, up from the previous forecast of 25.98 mmt. Second-crop (safrinha) corn production is now projected at 106.37 mmt, also higher than prior estimates, though final outcomes will remain highly dependent on weather conditions through the remainder of the growing season.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw corn inspections at 1,136k tons for the week ending January 29. This compares to 1,547k last week and 1,261k tons a year ago. Top destinations were Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher but gave back significant gains from earlier this morning. Markets were initially bolstered by optimism over new soybean oil exports to India. March soybeans gained 5-1/2 cents to $10.65-3/4 while November gained 4 cents to $10.79-1/4. March soybean meal lost $2.60 to $291.90 and March soybean oil gained 1.29 cents to $54.49 cents.
• Yesterday, it was announced that President Trump was finalizing a deal with India in which they would purchase $500 billion dollars in U.S. goods in exchange for a decrease in tariffs. This was bullish for soybean oil as trade expects new exports to China, and soybean oil propped up soybeans today.
• StoneX has increased its forecast for Brazilian soybean production for 25/26 with new estimates at 181.62 million metric tons which would be up from 177.61 mmt previously and would be a 7.6% increase year over year. Yields have looked more promising as harvest has progressed and is now 10% complete.
• Yesterday’s export inspections were solid for soybeans at 1,311k tons, which compared to 1,336k the previous week and 1,140k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Egypt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in mixed fashion. With the exception March KC, the winter classes posted small gains while MIAX slipped a bit. Aside from new USDA state by state crop conditions, fresh news pertaining to wheat has been scarce, offering little direction to the market. March Chicago gained 1 cent to 528-3/4, Kansas City was down 1/2 cent at 534-3/4, and MIAX fell 3-1/4 cents to 568-1/4.
• The US plains states look to remain relatively dry for the remainder of this week. However, both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts call for above normal precipitation in this region.
• Russia’s January wheat export estimate has been reduced to 2.5 mmt from 3.0 mmt by IKAR because of poor weather and rising values. According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices increased for the third consecutive week. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports through February 1 totaled 12.82 mmt, which is on par with the amount shipped at the same time last year.
• Crop condition data was released by the USDA for select states, and as of February 1, conditions appear mixed. While the Kansas wheat crop improved 1% to 61% good to excellent, Oklahoma declined 8% to 23% good to excellent. These figures compare with 50% and 40% GTE last year, for Kansas and Oklahoma, respectively.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The dairy trade rebounded on Tuesday as the up-and-down roller coaster trading continued. This follows a sharp red day on Monday.
• Both cheese blocks and barrels gained 2c, taking the block/barrel average back over $1.40/lb.
• The powder market closed at $1.50/lb for the first time since 2022. The move higher should keep support in Class IV.
• The Global Dairy Trade auction concluded on Tuesday, but results haven’t been posted due to a technical issue.
• By close, March Class III added 46c to $16.48 while April jumped 42c to $16.84.

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Author

Amanda Brill