TFM Morning Update 02-05-2026

CORN

Corn futures are slightly lower to start the day and have struggled to rally. They managed to move 4 cents higher yesterday when soybeans were up 50 cents. March corn is down 1/4 cent to $4.29-1/4 while December is down 1 cent to $4.56-1/4.
Estimates for today’s export sales report for the week ending January 29 see corn sale in a range between 800 and 2,100k tons with an average guess of 1,183k. This would compare to 1,649k a week ago and 1,527k the previous year.
Brazil is reportedly on track for an increase in ethanol production in 2026, and they are already the world’s second-largest producer. There will be more ethanol plants opened in the country, and ethanol prices have been profitable.

Soybeans are trading higher after yesterday’s significant gains that were caused by President Trump’s announcement that China would consider buying an additional 8 mmt of soybeans from the US this marketing year. March soybeans are up 8-3/4 cents to $11.01 while November is up just 1/4 cent to $10.87-3/4. March soybean meal is up $4.60 to $300.80 and soybean oil is down 0.40 cents to 55.25 cents.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 400 and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 742k tons. This would compare to 819k last week and 330k a year ago.
The US Treasury has released its proposed rules for the 45z tax credit that increases biofuel use of corn and soybeans. The market needs this sort of demand driver, and this should drive prices higher when implemented.

Wheat is mixed this morning and, along with corn, has struggled to rally despite big gains in soybeans. March Chicago wheat is up 1/4 cents to $5.27, KC wheat is down 1/2 cent to $5.29-3/4, and Minn wheat is up 1 cent to $5.67.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 400k. This would compare to 580k last week and 486k the previous year.
US winter wheat crop conditions were released for February 1, and Kansas ratings improved slightly by 1 point to 61% good to excellent. Oklahoma ratings fell by 8 points to 23% good to excellent, and other states saw conditions drop as well.

Amanda Brill