TFM Morning Update 02-12-2026

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 16, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN

Corn futures are modestly higher to start the session, with March futures up 1-1/4 cents at $4.28-3/4 and December futures higher by 3-4 cents at $4.60-1/2.
EIA data showed ethanol production rebounding by 154,000 barrels per day in the week ending February 6 to 1.11 million bpd. Ethanol stocks increased by 111,000 barrels to 25.247 million barrels. Exports slipped 79,000 bpd to 137,000 bpd, while refiner ethanol inputs rose 50,000 bpd to 841,000 bpd.
February’s WASDE report showed lower corn ending stocks alongside an upward revision to export demand. However, traders continue to weigh that against speculation that USDA may have overstated feed usage, which, if adjusted in future reports, could add bushels back into the ending stocks calculation.

Soybean futures received an overnight boost as the market continues to trade on optimism surrounding additional demand from China. March soybean futures are up 12-1/2 cents at $11.36-1/2, while November soybeans are higher by 4 cents at $11.14-1/2.
In its monthly WASDE report Tuesday, USDA noted that China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans.” With global demand expectations largely stable, USDA indicated that any additional Chinese purchases would likely result in a reshuffling of U.S. export flows, redirecting more shipments to China and fewer to other destinations.
Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for the 2025/26 soybean harvest to 48 mmt, up 1 mmt from its prior projection. The upward revision was attributed to favorable growing conditions across western and northern regions of the country.

Wheat futures are modestly higher to start the session. March Chicago wheat futures are up 2-3/4 cents at $5.40, Kansas City wheat futures are higher by 4 cents at $5.42-1/2, and MGEX spring wheat futures are up 1 cent at $5.71-1/4.
Wheat futures found support amid reports of ice development across portions of Russia’s winter wheat belt, raising concerns about potential stress to dormant crops. While most in the trade do not view the situation as a major production threat at this stage, the weather development has offered some encouragement to bulls hoping to avoid another 90 mmt Russian wheat crop.
The Trump Administration signed a trade agreement with Bangladesh that includes roughly $3.5 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases. Under the terms of the deal, Bangladesh committed to buying 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually for five years, although 676,000 metric tons had already been purchased as of January 29. The agreement is expected to provide incremental support to U.S. wheat export demand.

Matthew Lucas