The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, February 16, in observance of Presidents Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures showed continued strength throughout the session and closed higher, supported by ongoing demand as export sales remained positive. March corn settled 3.6 cents higher at 4.31 1/4, while May gained 5.2 cents to close at 4.41 3/4.
• Brazil has seen an improvement in soil moisture just ahead of the safrinha growing season. However, recent rains carry the risk of pushing a significant portion of safrinha planting beyond the ideal window, which closes in approximately 10 days.
• Export sales were released this morning by the USDA at 81.5 million bushels, well above expectations. Year-to-date commitments now stand at 2.394 billion bushels, up 31% from a year ago, compared to the USDA’s revised forecast of a 15.5% increase. Shipments total 1.367 billion bushels, up 47% year over year. Notable buyers included Japan, Korea, Colombia, and Mexico.
• CONAB updated its total Brazilian corn production estimate this morning to 138.45 mmt, slightly lower than last month’s 138.87 mmt and below expectations of 140.1 mmt. However, the figure remains above the USDA’s forecast of 131 mmt. Brazil’s second crop was reduced by 1.2 mmt to 109.26 mmt due to lower planted acreage.
• The Rosario Board of Trade left its Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 62 mmt, well above the USDA’s forecast of 53 mmt.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive session, as optimism surrounding renewed Chinese demand continued to build alongside strengthening demand for soy products. March soybeans gained 13-1/4 cents to $11.37-1/4 which has gained considerably on November which was up 5-3/4 cents to $11.16-1/4. March soybean meal was up $4.90 to $307.90, and soybean oil was up 0.49 cents to 57.54 cents.
• It was reported last night that President Trump and China’s President Xi spoke, and it appears likely they will meet at the Beijing summit in April to potentially extend the trade truce for another year. Such an agreement could include a rollback of tariffs on China and increased Chinese soybean purchases from the U.S. If Chinese buying accelerates significantly, the U.S. could ultimately need to import soybeans from Brazil to meet domestic demand.
• Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of just 10.4 million bushels for 25/26 and 48,000 bushels for 26/27. This was a marketing year low down 36% from last week and 80% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 41.5 mb were above the 24.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• In South America, Brazil has seen heavy rainfall in the southern regions, which has benefited the final stages of soybean pod filling. However, excessive moisture may be causing mold issues in mature beans and has slowed the transition from soybean harvest to safrinha corn planting. In Argentina, forecast models are showing improved chances for rainfall, but conditions remain dry overall, with soil moisture levels still below optimal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat complex posted a strong session, led by gains in the winter wheat classes. March Chicago wheat futures settled 15-1/4 cents higher at $5.52-1/2, Kansas City wheat futures closed up 15-1/2 cents at $5.54, and MGEX spring wheat futures finished 7-1/4 cents higher at $5.77-1/2.
• This morning, USDA reported net wheat export sales of 488,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, along with an additional 13,900 metric tons booked for 2026/27 delivery. The total came in within the range of trade expectations and keeps cumulative sales at a pace consistent with USDA’s export projection.
• Wheat futures found support amid reports of ice development across portions of Russia’s winter wheat belt, heightening concerns about potential stress to dormant crops. While most market participants do not view the situation as a significant production threat at this stage, the development has provided modest encouragement to bulls hoping to avoid another 90 mmt Russian wheat crop.
• Managed commodity funds continue to hold a sizable net short position in CBOT wheat futures, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of short-covering should supportive headlines emerge.
• The Trump Administration finalized a trade agreement with Bangladesh that includes approximately $3.5 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases. Under the agreement, Bangladesh committed to buying 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually over the next five years, although 676,000 metric tons had already been secured as of January 29. The deal is expected to provide incremental support to U.S. wheat export demand.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a back-and-forth day yesterday, Class III futures held small to moderate gains with March up 13 cents to $16.45.
• Spot cheese was down just a quarter cent to $1.41375/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.72/lb.
• Class IV came back strong with March and April both finishing 60 cents higher, pushing the second month back over $18.00.
• This came off an 8.25 cents gain in butter which led to a $1.7350/lb settlement. Powder was a quarter cent higher.

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Author

Amanda Brill