CORN

• Corn futures are modestly lower this morning as trade continues within a broader consolidation range. May corn is down 1 cent at $4.38-3/4, while December futures are 1-1/2 cents lower at $4.63.
• The corn market has moved beyond options expiration and is now turning its attention to first notice day for the March futures contract, which falls on February 27. Producers holding basis or “price-later” contracts may need to set futures ahead of that date, a dynamic that can increase hedge-related selling as physical bushels are priced or delivered.
• The Supreme Court of the United States ruled that tariffs implemented by the Trump administration were unlawful, introducing renewed uncertainty into the trade outlook. Market participants are now evaluating what comes next and how the decision could affect current trade relationships.

SOYBEANS

• Soybean futures are trading modestly lower this morning as the market continues to assess whether the United States can maintain negotiating leverage with China to secure the additional 8 million metric tons of soybean purchases. May soybeans are down 9-1/4 cents at $11.44, while November futures are 4-3/4 cents lower at $11.10-1/4.
• Policy shifts from Donald Trump following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down his broad tariff measures have tempered expectations that China will proceed with the additional 8 million metric tons of purchases he had previously highlighted.
• China has already purchased 12 million metric tons under the October trade truce, fulfilling its earlier commitments. With U.S. soybeans still priced above Brazilian supplies, and Brazil’s large harvest now moving through the pipeline and weighing on costs, analysts are questioning China’s incentive to secure additional U.S. cargoes in the absence of tariff pressure, which could limit further upside in prices.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex is modestly lower this morning as prices consolidate following recent gains. Chicago May wheat is down 4 cents at $5.76-3/4, Kansas City May futures are 5 cents lower at $5.80-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is off 1-1/4 cents at $5.98-1/4.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 10.6 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year and 0.7 million bushels for 2026/27. Weekly export shipments came in at 11.9 million bushels, below the roughly 17.0 million bushels per week needed to meet USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection. Total commitments for 2025/26 now stand at 830 million bushels, running 15% ahead of last year’s pace.
• The International Grains Council trimmed its estimate of global grain ending stocks by 3 MMT to 631 MMT. Within that revision, wheat stocks were lowered by 1 MMT to 282 MMT. The Council is also forecasting a smaller global wheat crop for the 2026/27 season, pointing to expectations for a reduced harvest and tighter overall supplies as consumption continues to increase.

Author

Matthew Lucas