TFM Midday Update 2-25-2026

CORN

Corn is trading mixed at midday, as varying weather conditions across key producing regions are contributing to choppy price action. March corn is down 2 cents at 4.27½, while May corn is up 6 cents at 4.39¼.
It is still too early in the season for U.S. weather to be a major market factor. However, showers in Argentina are expected to remain spotty over the next two weeks. While recent rainfall has helped stabilize crop conditions, deterioration could resume into early March.
Rainfall is moving into northern Brazil, but soil moisture will need to improve throughout March to support the safrinha crop. Current extended forecasts, however, do not indicate significant precipitation.
Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazil crop estimate by 1 million tons to 135 million, citing a large percentage of the safrinha crop being planted outside the ideal planting window, which closes this week.

Soybeans are trading higher, supported by strength in soybean meal. Soybean oil is moving lower, while both soybeans and soybean meal are posting gains. March soybeans are up 2 cents at 11.39½.
Cordonnier lowered his Brazil production estimate by 1 million tons to 178 million, citing poor crop quality and lower yields in northern Mato Grosso, along with dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where roughly 50% of the crop still has pods to fill.
Overnight, the Brazilian real reached another new contract high versus the U.S. dollar. However, despite the currency strength, the wide price differential between U.S. and Brazilian values continues to heavily favor Brazil in the export market.
Crush margins have strengthened, and the Indonesian trade deal signed last week includes a significant increase in U.S. meal purchases — rising from 216,257 tons in 2025 to a planned 3.8 million tons in 2026. U.S. meal exports are already at a six-year high, as Argentina’s crushers continue to face inventory constraints.

Wheat is trading lower at midday as weather concerns continue to ease and a lack of fresh news limits upside momentum. March Chicago wheat is down 6.4 cents at 5.61, while March Kansas City wheat is 4.2 cents lower at 5.50.
Weather conditions are becoming a bearish influence, as forecasts call for increased precipitation across the Southern Plains in the 6–15 day period, along with the potential for additional storm systems in early March.
Cold risk across the Black Sea region and Eastern Europe has eased, reducing the likelihood of crop damage from recent low temperatures.
Israel has indicated plans to increase U.S. wheat purchases in an effort to secure tariff relief, while Indonesia has reportedly already begun buying U.S. wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg