TFM Midday Update 03-02-2026

CORN

Corn futures are down Monday morning with May corn down 5 cents at 443-1/2 and December corn down 2 cents at 467-1/2.
After a strong finish last week, corn futures have softened to begin March, with May corn falling back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Friday’s settlement above the 200-day marked the first close above that level in 2026.
Weekend strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran sent shockwaves through global markets overnight. Crude oil futures briefly traded as high as $75 per barrel before easing, though prices remain above $70—roughly $4 higher than Friday’s close.
Corn plantings for second crop corn in Brazil reached 2/3 complete as of late last week. Weather is expected to remain favorable to soybean harvest and continued corn planting this week with a good mix of rain and sun forecast.

Soybean futures are mixed to start the week, with May soybeans down 6 cents, currently trading near 1164-1/2. November soybeans are currently up 1-1/2 cents, trading at 1129-3/4.
Strong gains in crude oil have spilled over into soybean oil to start the week. Front-month soybean oil futures are up roughly 2%, trading above 63 cents per pound. Soybean oil share—the portion of total soybean crush revenue derived from oil—has climbed above 50% for only the third time in history.
Managed money bought just over 75,000 contracts across the soybean complex in the week ended February 24. Their combined position now sits just under 280,000 contracts, nearing the November 2025 high.

CBOT wheat futures are lower to start the week. May futures are down 13-1/2 cents, currently trading at 578. KCBOT May futures are down 6 cents, currently trading at 574-1/2, while May Spring wheat is up 2-1/2 cents, trading at 599-1/2 currently.
Index funds were net buyers of KC wheat futures during the week ended February 24, lifting their net long to a record 81,186 contracts. Index funds are passive investment vehicles that track commodity prices and provide exposure to futures markets without holding physical commodities.
Soil moisture remains limited across the Central and Southern Plains, though multiple waves of precipitation are forecast this week, which could improve conditions.
In Ukraine, as much as 20% of crops may have been lost due to severe February frosts, with temperatures in some areas falling to 19°F below zero.

Keegan Madigan