TFM Morning Update 03-05-2026

CORN

Corn futures have resumed their upward momentum this morning, drawing spillover support from strength in the energy markets. May corn is up 2-1/2 cents at $4.46-1/4, while December futures are 2-1/4 cents higher at $4.72-1/2.
Weekly ethanol production declined to 322 million barrels last week, down from 325 million barrels the prior week. An estimated 109.05 million bushels of corn were used in production, still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s target for the marketing year.
Crude oil futures resumed their upward push after a brief pause yesterday, as energy markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East conflict. This morning, crude oil is up more than 3%, trading near $77 per barrel.

Soybean futures are trading higher again this morning as the market continues to approach the mid-November high. May soybeans are up 3-1/2 cents at $11.73, while November futures are 3-1/4 cents higher at $11.33-3/4.
China continues to show limited interest in purchasing additional U.S. soybeans, as South American supplies remain available at a notable discount. Recent reports indicate that China has booked more than ten cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for April–May shipment.
Soybean oil continues to draw support from the sharp rally in crude oil, fueled by escalating tensions involving Iran. The risk of supply disruptions through the region has injected a geopolitical premium into energy markets, helping lift crude prices and providing spillover support to the soybean oil market.

The wheat complex is higher across the board this morning, with Kansas City futures leading the move. May Chicago wheat is up 8 cents at $5.76-1/4, Kansas City May futures are 8-3/4 cents higher at $5.81-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 4-1/4 cents at $6.13-3/4.
Statistics Canada will release its 2026 planting intentions later today. The average pre-report estimate places Canadian wheat acreage at 26.4 million acres, below the 26.9 million planted last year. However, analyst estimates vary widely, ranging from 26.0 to 29.2 million acres.
According to the European Commission, total EU grain production for 2025/26 was left unchanged from the previous estimate at 287.4 MMT. The steady total reflects a lower corn crop estimate offset by a slightly higher soft wheat forecast, which was raised from 134.2 MMT to 134.4 MMT.

Matthew Lucas