TFM Midday Update 03-04-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower at midday amid generally favorable weather conditions in South America. May corn is down 5.6 cents at 4.41.
The USDA confirmed the sale of 125,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Argentina remains slightly more competitively priced than the United States; however, U.S. exportable supplies are larger than those of Argentina. Despite the sharp rally in the U.S. dollar this week, export demand for U.S. corn is expected to remain strong.
Dr. Cordonnier left his Argentina and Brazil corn production estimates unchanged this week but noted that March–April rainfall will be critical for the development of Brazil’s safrinha crop. Current 10-day weather models are not showing significant stress overall, although pockets of eastern Argentina are expected to receive additional rainfall in the near term.
Ethanol production declined to 322 million gallons in the week ended Friday, February 27, down from 325 million gallons the previous week. Output was in line with market expectations and remained consistent with the year-to-date average.

At midday, soybean futures are mixed even amid pressure from the recent surge in the U.S. dollar, with indications that China is still open to early April discussions providing underlying support. Soybeans and soybean oil are higher, whereas soybean meal is softer. May soybeans are higher at 11.70 ¾.
Brazilian production estimates were revised lower this week, reflecting persistent dryness in Rio Grande do Sul. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall in northern Mato Grosso during late February has created quality issues and negatively impacted yield prospects.
The Brazilian currency softened versus the U.S. dollar this week, encouraging farmer selling of cash soybeans. In response to competitive pricing, China secured 10-plus cargoes of Brazilian soybeans yesterday.

Wheat is under pressure at midday, with upcoming precipitation across the U.S. Plains improving soil moisture prospects and limiting upside momentum. May Chicago wheat is 8 cents lower at 5.66 while May Kansas City wheat is 8.6 cents lower at 5.69 ½.
Stats Canada is scheduled to release its latest acreage update tomorrow. All wheat acreage is expected to total 26.4 million acres, down from 27.47 million acres last year.
Beginning late next week, the recent warm weather pattern is expected to shift as colder air moves into the northern Plains, potentially pushing into the southern Plains during the second half of March. This transition could pose risks, as the recent warmth has brought portions of the HRW crop out of dormancy, leaving it vulnerable to potential cold damage.
Significant moisture is forecast for the central and eastern Plains, along with Midwestern SRW wheat areas. Southwestern HRW regions are expected to miss the bulk of the precipitation; however, rainfall totals could be substantial in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, extending eastward through the lower Midwest SRW belt.

Lauren VandenLangenberg