CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted strong gains on Thursday as the market was supported by strong export sales totals and a rally by crude oil prices. May corn added 9 ¾ to close at 453 ½ and the July contract gained 9 ¼ cents to 462 ¾.
• Old crop corn prices are trading just short of the USDA January report day high of 456 ¾ on the May contract. This may be a difficult barrier to break, but charts show good technical strength.
• Crude oil prices surged on Thursday, crossing the $80.00 per barrel level as logistical concerns tied to the escalating U.S.–Iran conflict supported the market. Strength in the energy sector helped provide additional support to grain markets, contributing to higher prices on Thursday.
• Another week of strong corn exports sales provided support to the corn market. For the week ending February 26, the USDA announced export sales of 2.203 MMT (79.6 mb). This total was well above the high end of trade expectations. Current total corn exports sales are up 31% from a year ago.
• Farmer selling of bushels in the U.S. and South America could limit rallies as prices for old crop corn for the May contract have rallied 26 cents off the January report day low.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean prices continued to push higher, drawing support from rising crude oil and strength in soybean oil. May futures broke through resistance at the November high and managed to close above that level after several recent attempts to challenge it. May soybeans closed 9-3/4 cents higher at $11.79-1/4, while November soybeans ended the session 6 cents higher at $11.36-1/2.
• In its latest weekly report, USDA said soybean export sales for the week ending February 26 totaled 383,500 metric tons. Soybean sales came in toward the low end of expectations, with analysts projecting totals between 300,000 and 1 million metric tons.
• The Brazilian currency softened against the U.S. dollar this week, encouraging increased farmer selling of cash soybeans. Taking advantage of the more competitive pricing, China reportedly secured more than 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans.
• At the same time, Brazil is harvesting what is widely expected to be a record soybean crop, a development that could curb Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans.
• Crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt Middle East supply, forcing some refineries in other parts of the world to cut back production. Grain markets can react to movements in crude oil prices, in part because the biofuel industry consumes large quantities of corn and soybeans as feedstocks.
• Soybean oil has continued to receive bullish support from the rapid rise in crude oil prices, largely due to demand for soybean oil in biodiesel production. On a continuous basis, soybean oil has broken above the August 2023 high, a key technical level.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat led the grain complex higher today, posting double-digit gains across all three classes despite a firming U.S. dollar. Volatility in grain markets appears to be increasing amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The situation has contributed to surging energy prices and growing concerns over fertilizer availability, both of which are providing support to grain prices. Additionally, some money flow may be shifting from equities into commodities, as risk-off sentiment weighs on financial markets. As of this writing, the Dow is down more than 1,100 points. In the May contract, Chicago gained 15-1/2 cents to 583-3/4, Kansas City climbed 20 cents to 592-1/2, and MIAX closed 10-1/4 cents higher at 619-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 7.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and 2.0 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 12.8 mb, which falls under the 17.1 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 900 mb export goal. Total wheat export commitments have reached 847 mb, up 14% from last year.
• Canadian all-wheat acreage is forecast at 26.74 million in an update released this morning by Statistics Canada, slightly below trade expectations of 26.9 ma. The estimate also represents a 1.1% decline from the 27.03 ma planted in 2025. Spring wheat acreage specifically is expected to fall 0.1% to 18.8 ma.
• According to the USDA, as of March 3, an estimated 56% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 6% from the week prior. This is also the highest figure since November of 2024. During the same time period, spring wheat area in drought increased from 16% to 19%.
• SovEcon has kept their estimate of Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop unchanged at 24.6 mmt. This is despite the cold snap earlier this year – they indicated that good snow cover likely protected the crop from too much damage.
• The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is anticipating that Kazakhstan will produce a wheat crop totaling 18 mmt in the 25/26 season. This was a reduction of about 0.9 mmt from their previous estimate and contrasts with Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics estimate of 19.3 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were under pressure today with April dropping 26 cents to move to $17.36.
• Spot cheese was up slightly to $1.59/lb, entering Friday up 4.8750 cents for the week so far. Spot whey was up a half cent.
• Class IV futures were once again mixed. The second month contract was up 4 cents to $19.79.
• Spot butter was up 2 cents to $2.04/lb, entering Friday with 20 cents of gains. Spot powder lost a quarter cent, settling at $1.6525/lb.
• In January, cheese production was up 4.7% YoY and butter production was up 6.0% from January 2025.

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Author

Amanda Brill