Make Catch-Up Sales on Price Rallies

What’s Happened…

A recent price recovery for many commodities including corn, soybeans, and wheat has provided opportunities for farmers to make sales on 2025 crops and to initiate sales on new (2026) crops.  

When looking in the rear-view mirror, 2025 offered little reason to sell in advance of the harvest season. Prices started in 2025 near the cost of production and slid throughout the year. The January 12 WASDE report reminded us there is ample grain and oilseed supplies both domestically and worldwide. Corn prices are now trading at the best level in several months. Soybeans rallied in November only to lose well over $1.00 by December. Since they have gained nearly $1.30, this could be a second chance to add to sales. Wheat prices in recent weeks have been trading at their highest level since July of 2025.  

Why this is Important…

Cash flow and tight margins suggest that financial struggles for farmers will continue. Yet the price recovery is at least providing some breathing room. The timing is good, allowing producers to at least help meet cash flow requirements, not to mention a psychological lift. Getting started for the upcoming season is important. This could be a good opportunity to begin selling with the anticipation of even higher prices occurring, allowing for more sales and a higher average.  

The current price levels may be important pivot points. On the one hand, prices could quickly erode, meaning any sales are beneficial. On the other hand, the ability to average up is important as well. Assuming we’ll experience mostly normal crop production and the argument of lower prices by fall is real. The bottom line is that, regardless of what the future holds for price movement, initiating sales for 2026 now makes as much sense today as it will many months from now.  

What can you do about it?

Stay on top of price activity, market conditions, and changes that may occur. Pay attention to price charts and technical price signals. Know where chart support and resistance levels are. Connect with those important in your management circle. Place orders above the market so that if prices move to those desired levels, execution occurs without question. Push a pencil to the risk you’re willing to take with your strategies. Understand the risk you incur by not having a plan. Yes, doing nothing is still a plan.  

One of the biggest issues we hear farmers express is one of missed opportunities. Patience and watching is one thing. Patience with well-planned executable strategies is another. Higher prices should incentivize you to carve out required time for planning and implementation, especially with the busy spring season just around the corner. 

Find out what works for you… 

Work with a professional to find the strategy or strategies that are best suited for your operation. Communication is important. Ask critical questions and garner a full comprehension of consequences and potential rewards before executing. The idea is to make good decisions for the operation and less emotionally–charged responses to market moves, which are always dynamic.  

About the Author: With the wisdom of over 36 years at Total Farm Marketing and following across the Grain Belt, Bryan Doherty is deeply passionate about his clients, their success, and long-term, fruitful relationships. As a senior market advisor and vice president of Brokerage Solutions, Doherty lives and breathes farm marketing. He has an in-depth understanding of the markets and marketing tools, an excellent listener, and communicates with intent and clarity to ensure clients are comfortable with their decisions.

The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation. 

Author

Bryan Doherty