TFM Morning Update 03-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher again to start the day as crude oil continues to rally and fund money flows into commodities. May corn is up 5-1/4 cents to $4.65-1/2 while December is up 4 cents to $4.93.
Yesterday’s weekly petroleum report saw US ethanol stocks falling by 2.9% to 25.58m bbl which is significantly lower than the analyst estimate of 26.443m bbl. Plant production of 1.126m b/d compared to estimates of 1.108m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report as of March 5 see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,513k. This would compare to 2,177k a week ago and 981k a year ago.

Soybean futures are trading sharply higher again today but are still shy of taking out Monday’s high. Today’s move is driven by news that Cargill has halted Brazilian soybean shipments to China due to inspection changes made by the Brazilian government. The Ag Ministry has implemented a stricter sanitary evaluation which has made compliance difficult for traders.
May soybean futures are up 14-1/4 cents to $12.28-1/2, and the high of the year has been $12.33-3/4. November soybeans are up 5-1/2 cents to $11.69. May soybean meal is up $4.10 to $316.40 and May soybean oil is up 0.61 cents to 67.77 cents.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with an average guess of 400k. This would compare to 384k tons last week and 737k at this time a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day along with the rest of the grain complex as trade fears that the war will drag on. May Chicago wheat is up 8 cents to $6.02-1/2, KC is up 7 cents to $6.20-1/4, and Minn is up 6-1/2 cents to $6.44-1/2.
Russian wheat exports for March are expected to nearly double year over year. March exports are expected to reach 3.7 million tons which would be nearly double the volume of March 2025 and would be well above the 5-year average of around 2.9m tons.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 450k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 258k last week and 866k tons a year ago at this time.

Amanda Brill