TFM Midday Update 3-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures continued to trade higher at midday, supported by strength in crude oil markets. May corn rose 4.2 cents to 4.64½.
CONAB is expected to release its latest production update tomorrow morning. Current estimates place safrinha corn planting at 76% complete, trailing the 83% historical average. Based on the current pace, approximately 6–7 million acres remain to be planted. Michael Cordonnier suggests that 1–2 million of those acres could ultimately be switched to milo if delays continue.
Pressure is building for government action on fertilizer prices as planting approaches. If fertilizer costs stay elevated over the next 60 days, the market could see a reduction in U.S. corn acres.
Weekly corn export sales came in at 60 million bushels, matching trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now stand at 2.619 billion bushels, up 32% year-over-year, well ahead of the USDA’s projected 15.5% increase.

Soybeans continued to trade sharply higher at midday as strength in crude oil spilled over into the market, providing additional support. The entire soy complex was higher at midday, with May soybeans up 19 cents at 12.33.
Cargill reported yesterday that exports of Brazilian soybeans to China are currently paused due to changes the Brazilian government made to the export inspection process at China’s request. Some traders view this as a potential signal that China may be creating room for U.S. soybean purchases later this month ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.
CONAB will release its latest crop estimates tomorrow morning. The agency currently estimates harvest progress at 50.6% complete, compared to 60.9% at the same time last year.
Soybean export sales for the week totaled 17 million bushels, coming in at the low end of expectations. Year-to-date commitments stand at 1.341 billion bushels, down 19% from last year, compared to the USDA forecast calling for a 16% decline.

Wheat also continued to push higher in midday trade as global developments provided support. May Chicago wheat was up 11.4 cents at 6.06½, while May Kansas City wheat was up 11.2 cents at 6.24¾.
Germany’s crop is estimated to fall 3.8% year over year, while Expana estimates EU SRW production at 128.6 million tons, slightly above last month’s estimate of 128.3 million tons.
Russia is redirecting wheat exports to Iran via the Caspian Sea as shipments from Black Sea terminals remain suspended.
Wheat export sales totaled 17 million bushels, coming in above expectations. This brings year-to-date commitments to 864 million bushels, up 12% from last year, compared to the USDA forecast calling for a 9% increase.

Lauren VandenLangenberg