TFM Morning Update 03-16-2026

CORN

Corn futures are lower this morning and are likely following the sharp move lower in soybeans. May corn is down 5-1/2 cents to $4.61-3/4 while December is down 4-1/4 cents to $4.87-1/4.
Conab has cut its estimate for Brazil’s 25/26 corn production citing lower yields. Production was estimated at 138.27 mmt down from 138.45 mmt last month, and second crop corn was estimated at 108.43 mmt, down from 109.26 in February. Planted acreage is expected to be up with lower yields.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds come in with massive buying in corn. They purchased 140,297 contracts which increased their net long position to 193,271 contracts, the largest since this time last year.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower following President Trump’s comments this weekend stating that he may delay the US China summit if China does not help to clear the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stressed China’s dependence on oil from the Middle East and demanded Beijing’s help to unblock the waterway.
May soybeans are down 31-1/2 cents to $11.93-3/4 while November is down 11-1/4 cents to $11.50-1/4. May soybean meal is down $7.10 to $315.60 and May soybean oil is down 1.10 cents to 66.34 cents.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 10. They bought 23,205 contracts increasing their net long position to 222,107 contracts. They bought 33,329 contracts of bean oil and bought 18,574 contracts of meal.

Wheat is mixed to start the week with May Chicago wheat down 4-1/2 cents to $6.09 likely following the rest of the grain complex. May KC wheat is up 2-1/2 cents to $6.32-1/4, and Minn wheat is down 3-1/2 cents to $6.42-1/4.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 3,455 contracts decreasing their net short position to 22,345 contracts. They bought 7,559 contracts of KC wheat which increased their net long position to 9,425 contracts.
FranceAgriMer lowered its estimate of 2025/26 French soft wheat exports outside the EU for the fourth consecutive month, trimming the forecast by 0.1 MMT to 7.10 MMT. The reduction also lifted projected ending stocks to a 16-year high. Despite the cut, exports at 7.10 MMT would still be roughly double the volume shipped outside the EU last season.

Amanda Brill