CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling pressure hit the grain markets to start the week as geopolitical news triggered aggressive long liquidation to start the week. May corn futures lost 13 ¼ cents to 454, and July corn futures lost 12 ½ cents to 465 ¾.
• Over the weekend, a cooling overall tone regarding war headlines pressured energy markets, plus trade talks with China looked to indicate that they would not be interested in new soybean purchases, and a possible delay in the President Trump and Xi meeting in April triggered the selling. Front end soybean futures finished limit down on the session
• USDA released weekly corn export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending March 12, corn inspections totaled 1.659 MMT (65.3 mb) which was near the top end of expectations. Total inspections for the marketing year have reached 1.688 BB, up 39% from last year.
• Argentina corn harvest has begun as producers have harvested approximately 9% of the crop.  Fresh Argentina supplies will provide competition to U.S. bushels on the corn export market.
• Brazil second crop corn planting is near 75% complete, up 11% from last week, but still down 8% from last year’s pace.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day limit down in a massive reversal after President Trump threatened to delay the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if China does not help secure the Strait of Hormuz. May soybeans were down 70 cents to $11.55-1/4 while November was down 40-3/4 cents to $11.20-3/4. May soybean meal was down $10.50 to $312.20, and soybean oil was down limit, 3.50 cents to 63.94 cents.
• The Chinese trade news dominated the grain markets today with soybeans leading corn, wheat, and oats lower. It seems unlikely that China will help to clear the Strait as they have a close relationship with Iran and are one of the countries still receiving oil from Iran. If this is the point of contention that stalls trade talks, soybeans could fall further.
• Today’s export inspections were better than expected but still sluggish with inspections totaling 36.6 million bushels. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 1031 mb which would be down 28% from the previous year. The USDA estimates soybean exports for 25/26 at 1.575 billion bushels.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 10. They bought 23,205 contracts, increasing their net long position to 222,107 contracts. They bought 33,329 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 108,838 contracts and bought 18,574 contracts of meal, leaving them long 80,661 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses across the board, succumbing to pressure from soybean futures. Weakening energy prices and sharply lower Paris milling wheat futures did not offer any support. In the May contract, Chicago lost 16-1/2 cents at 597-1/4, Kansas City slipped 13-1/2 cents to 616-1/2, and MIAX fell 11-1/2 cents to 634.
• Weekly wheat inspections amounted to 12.6 mb, which brings total 25/26 inspections to 715 mb, up 19% from last year. Wheat inspections continue to run above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are forecast at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• The Russian Agriculture Ministry has increased their wheat export tax from 0 to 135.4 Rubles/mt – this period will end March 4. Russia had kept the wheat export tax at 0 for quite some time.
• According to SovEcon, Russian wheat export values finished last week between $238-$240/mt on a FOB basis. These are the highest prices since August of 2025. Furthermore, SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports this month will total between 3.7 mmt and 4.4 mmt.
• Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report indicated that for the week ended March 10, managed funds were net long across all three wheat classes for the first time since October of 2022. Most notably, they purchased about 7,500 KC wheat contracts, a weekly increase of over 400% to their net long position.
• Brazil may see the smallest wheat harvest in five years, with Safras and Mercado predicting the 26/27 crop will reach 6.86 mmt. CONAB, for reference, is estimating the crop at 6.9 mmt, which would be down 12.3% from the prior season. Both groups are estimating a smaller crop due to a decline in planted area because of current pricing and high input costs. However, there is some discrepancy between the two groups; Safras is thinking the sown area will total 1.99 million hectares, down 15.5% from last season, while CONAB has planted area at 2.32 million hectares, down only 5.2%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures extended on Friday’s gains with the May contract climbing 24 cents to $17.43.
• Spot cheese is trying to climb higher, adding 1.50 cents to close at $1.5450/lb. Whey held steady from Friday’s close at $0.66/lb.
• Class IV milk futures saw some follow through strength from last week. The June contract saw the largest improvement of 43 cents to close at $19.98.
• Spot butter was slightly higher to start the week, gaining just 0.25 cents to $1.85/lb. Powder improved 3 cents to $1.7950/lb.
• Global Dairy Trade auction event results are expected on Tuesday and February Milk Production Data is due out on Friday.

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Author

John Heinberg