TFM Morning Update 03-24-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning, drawing spillover support from strength in the energy markets. May corn is up 1-1/4 cents at $4.60-3/4, while December corn is 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.87-1/4.
Oil prices saw a temporary pullback after President Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, easing immediate supply concerns. However, broader risks remain elevated as Iran continues to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and fertilizer shipments.
Rising diesel and nitrogen fertilizer costs are tightening farmer margins, particularly in the U.S., with similar pressures emerging globally. In some regions, including South Africa, fuel shortages and higher input costs are already threatening planting and harvest activity. With corn’s heavy reliance on fertilizer, these elevated costs are reinforcing expectations for tighter supply and helping support prices despite ongoing volatility.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning as the market continues to consolidate. May soybeans are down 4-1/4 cents at $11.59-1/4, while November soybeans are 2-1/4 cents lower at $11.44-1/4.
China continues to show limited interest in U.S. soybeans. Purchases during January and February 2025 totaled just 1.5 million metric tons, marking an 84% decline from the same period last year and highlighting the ongoing weakness in export demand.
Grain and oilseed markets have largely tracked movements in crude oil during the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, reflecting the role of corn and soybean oil in biofuels as well as investor interest in these markets as an inflation hedge. Oil prices moved higher early Tuesday on renewed supply concerns after Iran denied holding talks with the United States to end the conflict, contradicting President Trump’s earlier comments suggesting a potential deal could be reached soon.

The wheat complex is trading slightly higher across all three classes this morning. May Chicago wheat is up 3/4 of a cent at $5.88-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 1 cent higher at $6.04-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 4 cents at $6.31.
In Australia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, growers are expected to reduce acreage as the availability and cost of key crop nutrients become increasingly uncertain amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East..
The situation has been further strained by disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, driving prices higher and tightening availability for farmers worldwide. As a result, many producers are facing the dual challenge of rising input costs alongside historically weak wheat prices and ample global supplies—pressures that existed prior to the current conflict but have since been intensified.

Matthew Lucas