TFM Morning Update 03-26-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading in a mixed fashion this morning, with nearby contracts posting shallow losses while deferred months show modest strength as the market positions ahead of next Tuesday’s Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. May corn is down 1/2 cent at $4.66-3/4, while December corn is up 1/4 cent at $4.93-1/2.
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced a waiver yesterday morning allowing E15 sales beginning May 1, continuing the recent pattern of lifting fuel restrictions during the summer months.
The EPA is expected to release biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 before the end of the month, potentially during President Trump’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event on Friday, March 27. Any increase in blending mandates could provide support to ethanol demand.

Soybean futures are trading slightly higher this morning. May soybeans are up 3/4 of a cent at $11.72-1/2, while November soybeans are 1 cent higher at $11.51.
President Trump’s plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May have raised expectations for improved Chinese demand for U.S. agricultural exports. Trump indicated he will travel to Beijing on May 14–15, with a reciprocal visit from Xi to Washington expected later this year, signaling a potential step toward stronger trade relations.
China is expected to ramp up imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, supported by record production and more competitive pricing. While Chinese state-owned firms have purchased roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans since late October, those volumes remain well below the approximately 23 million tons imported during the 2024/25 marketing year.

The wheat complex is trading mixed this morning. May Chicago wheat is down 3-1/4 cents at $5.94-1/2, Kansas City wheat is up 1/4 cent at $6.18, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 1/2 cent lower at $6.40-1/4.
The wheat market continues to balance concerns over drought stress in U.S. production against a backdrop of ample global supplies, highlighted by a recent surge in Russian exports.
Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings as of March 22, showing some deterioration in key areas. Kansas declined 6 points to 46% good to excellent, Colorado fell 5 points to 24%, and Oklahoma dropped 4 points to 14%. Texas saw a slight improvement, rising 1 point to 16% good to excellent.

Matthew Lucas