TFM Midday Update 3-25-2026

CORN

Corn is trading higher at midday despite a pullback in energy prices following comments from President Trump about a potential one-month ceasefire with Iran. May corn is up 1 cent at 4.63 ½.
Cordonnier reduced his Brazil corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 132 million metric tons and projected U.S. corn acreage at 93.5 million acres, which is 500,000 below Ag Forum expectations.
Corn planting progress in the South has reached 42% in Texas, 46% in Louisiana, 9% in Arkansas, and 26% in Mississippi. Weather remains mixed, with storms possible across the eastern Corn Belt this week, while the western belt is expected to stay hot and dry.
Ethanol production rebounded to 328 million gallons in the week ended Friday March 20, up from 321 million the previous week and up 6% from YA. Production was above expectations.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday, with May soybeans up 7 cents at 11.62. Soybeans and soybean oil are posting gains, while soybean meal is lower.
Talks with Iran are ongoing, with President Trump indicating a potential one-month ceasefire, which is weighing on energy markets.
Russia announced a one-month restriction on ammonium nitrate exports yesterday. With the country representing approximately 40% of global trade in that fertilizer, the move could significantly tighten supply. Goldman Sachs indicated this morning that the resulting supply constraints may negatively impact global crop yields.
Cordonnier maintained his soybean production estimates for Brazil and Argentina this week, while projecting U.S. spring acreage at 86 million acres — 1 million higher than Ag Forum estimates released late last month.
Severe storm potential is forecast across the eastern Corn Belt in the second half of this week, while western areas are expected to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks following a brief cooldown this weekend.

Wheat futures are mixed at midday, with ceasefire talk involving Iran weighing on energy markets. May Chicago wheat is 6 cents lower at 5.89 ¼ while May Kansas City wheat is 3.2 cents higher at 6.07 ¼.
The U.S. Plains are expected to see hot and dry conditions over the next week, with only a brief cooldown over the weekend. In the Central Plains, temperatures will hover just above freezing, while rainfall is expected across the far southern Plains and into the lower Midwest.
Russia raised its export tax 3.7-fold for next week, likely in response to the recent acceleration in export activity.
SovEcon increased its Russian wheat export forecast yesterday, raising 2025/26 by 1.1 MMT to 46.5 million tons and 2026/27 by 2.1 MMT to 43.8 million, supported by a weaker ruble.

Lauren VandenLangenberg