TFM Morning Update 04-08-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning, pressured by spillover weakness from the energy markets. May corn is down 3-3/4 cents at $4.45-1/4, while December corn is 5-1/4 cents lower at $4.72-3/4.
Corn futures are facing pressure from the drop in crude oil below $100, as easing geopolitical tensions reduce energy prices and weaken ethanol margins. With less support from the energy complex, the biofuel-driven demand outlook for corn softens, removing a key pillar that had been supporting prices.
USDA will release its April WASDE report on Thursday, April 8, with the corn market closely watching how the agency incorporates the recent Grain Stocks data into the old crop balance sheet.

Soybean futures are trading mixed this morning as the market balances weakness in energy markets with trade optimism. May soybeans are up 3/4 of a cent at $11.59, while November soybeans are down 3/4 of a cent at $11.50-1/4.
Soybean futures are finding support this morning from renewed optimism around U.S.–China trade discussions, which is helping offset the bearish influence of sharply lower crude oil prices and weaker biofuel demand.
USDA will release its WASDE report Thursday, with traders expecting U.S. 2025/26 soybean ending stocks near 349 million bushels, essentially unchanged from last month. South American production estimates are also seen holding steady, with Argentina at 48.1 million metric tons and Brazil at 179.9 million metric tons.

The wheat complex is sharply lower this morning, with Kansas City wheat leading the losses, as the U.S.–Iran ceasefire has removed a significant portion of the war-driven risk premium from the market. May Chicago wheat is down 18-1/4 cents at $5.79-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 16-3/4 cents lower at $5.90-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 13-1/4 cents at $6.27-3/4.
USDA’s first winter wheat report for 2026 rated just 35% of the crop as good-to-excellent, the lowest for this time of year since 2023 and well below the 48% reported in 2025.
Commodity firm Argus raised its 2026/27 forecast for Russian wheat production, citing improved yield prospects and an increase in winter wheat planted area in the world’s largest wheat-exporting country.

Matthew Lucas