CORN

• Corn futures are trading higher this morning as the market weighs the credibility of the ceasefire agreement, with added support coming from renewed strength in energy markets. May corn is up 2 cents at $4.49-1/4, while December corn is 1-1/2 cents higher at $4.77-1/2.
• USDA will release its April WASDE report on Thursday, April 9, with the corn market closely watching how the agency incorporates recent Grain Stocks data into the old crop balance sheet. Expectations are for only minor adjustments to current corn carryout projections.
• Oil prices moved higher as markets grew concerned that supply from the Middle East may not fully recover, with doubts surrounding the durability of the U.S., a key route for roughly 20% of global oil flows. This ongoing uncertainty is keeping a risk premium in energy markets, which can continue to lend underlying support to grain and oilseed prices through elevated fuel and fertilizer costs.

SOYBEANS

• Soybean futures are trading higher this morning, supported by strength in energy markets and continued optimism surrounding upcoming U.S.–China trade discussions. May soybeans are up 3-1/2 cents at $11.65-1/2, while November soybeans are 3-1/4 cents higher at $11.55-1/4.
• Estimates for today’s WASDE report see U.S. soybean ending stocks at 349 million bushels, essentially unchanged from last month. South American production is also expected to hold steady, with Argentina at 48.1 million metric tons and Brazil at 179.9 million metric tons, while global ending stocks are projected slightly higher.
• The soybean market has been supported by optimism that a mid-May meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could lead to renewed U.S. export demand from China, the world’s largest soybean importer.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex is trading higher across all three classes this morning as the market looks to recover from yesterday’s losses. May Chicago wheat is up 7-1/4 cents at $5.87-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 8-1/4 cents higher at $6.03-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 5-1/4 cents at $6.29-1/4.
• Later this morning, traders will receive the monthly WASDE report, with pre-report estimates placing U.S. 2025/26 wheat ending stocks at 921 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. Meanwhile, global 2025/26 wheat carryout is expected to increase slightly by 0.3 million metric tons to 277.3 million metric tons.
• The wheat market is likely to face headwinds from improving U.S. crop prospects, with beneficial rains expected across the Plains this week, alongside rising production forecasts out of Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter.

Author

Matthew Lucas