TFM Morning Update 04-10-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning as the market continues to digest a relatively uneventful USDA report from yesterday. May corn is down 1-1/2 cents at $4.42-1/2, while December corn is 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.72-1/2.
In yesterday’s USDA WASDE report, U.S. corn ending stocks were left unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, a seven-year high, while global corn outlooks were revised higher. World corn production was increased to 1.3 billion metric tons, with ending stocks raised to 294.8 million metric tons.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina’s corn crop to 67 MMT, up from 62 MMT, citing a larger-than-expected planted area, roughly equivalent to an additional 200 million bushels. In contrast, USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn production at 52 MMT.

Soybean futures are trading slightly higher this morning as the market remains within its recent consolidation pattern following yesterday’s USDA report. May soybeans are up 1/2 cent at $11.65-3/4, while November soybeans are 1 cent higher at $11.53-1/2.
In Thursday’s April WASDE report, USDA increased its forecast for U.S. soybean crush by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion, while lowering its export outlook to 1.54 billion bushels. These adjustments offset each other, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels.
The WASDE report reflected a shift in soybean demand away from exports and toward domestic crushing, likely tied to recently announced EPA renewable fuel regulations. These policy changes are viewed as supportive for U.S. soybeans, as a greater share of waived volumes from small-refinery exemptions is being reallocated to larger refiners, boosting overall biofuel demand.

The wheat complex is trading slightly lower across all three classes this morning. May Chicago wheat is down 3-1/4 cents at $5.71-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 2 cents lower at $5.88-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is off 1/4 cent at $6.18.
In yesterday’s USDA WASDE report, global wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year were raised to 283.12 million metric tons, up from 276.96 million and above analyst expectations, driven by larger crops in Russia and the European Union.
According to USDA data as of April 7, 68% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up 3 points from the previous week. In contrast, spring wheat saw its first improvement in several weeks, with drought coverage declining 3 points to 18%.

Matthew Lucas