TFM Morning Update 04-21-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as the market continues to digest early-season planting progress and ongoing volatility surrounding the Middle East conflict. May corn is down 1/2 cent at $4.51-1/2, while December futures are 1 cent lower at $4.78-1/2.
NASS Crop Progress data showed the U.S. corn crop was 11% planted as of Sunday, 2 points ahead of the five-year average pace of 9%. The crop was also 4% emerged, running 2 percentage points ahead of normal.
USDA released weekly export inspections Monday morning, reporting 1.669 MMT (65.7 mb) of corn inspected for the week ending April 16. South Korea and Mexico were the top destinations. Total inspections for the marketing year have reached 2.036 billion bushels, up 32% from last year, compared to USDA’s current forecast for a 15% increase.

Soybean futures are trading higher across the board this morning, with new crop futures testing the upper end of their recent consolidation range. May soybeans are up 5-3/4 cents at $11.71-1/2, while November soybeans are 3-3/4 cents higher at $11.61-1/2.
Yesterday’s export inspections report showed soybean inspections within analyst expectations, totaling 27.5 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year. Roughly 60% of those shipments were headed to China. Cumulative inspections now stand at 1.182 billion bushels, down 25% from last year.
Soybean futures may face added pressure after China’s agriculture ministry projected lower import demand in 2026. The outlook calls for soybean imports to decline by 6.1%, alongside reduced imports of pork, beef, and dairy, signaling softer overall agricultural demand from the world’s largest soybean buyer.

Wheat futures are posting modest gains this morning as the market balances ample global supplies against deteriorating crop conditions. May Chicago wheat is up 1/2 cent at $5.97-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 1-1/2 cents higher at $6.36-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 1/4 cent at $6.57-3/4.
USDA rated 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good-to-excellent on Monday, down from 34% the previous week and below analyst expectations, as dry conditions and a weekend cold snap stressed crops.
In global news, India approved an additional 2.5 million metric tons of wheat exports, bringing its total export quota to 5 million tons, though traders caution that actual shipments may fall well short of that level.

Matthew Lucas