CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted gains on Tuesday as broader commodity markets added some risk premium, with strength in wheat and soybeans providing additional support throughout the session. May corn futures added 1 ¾ cents to 453 ¾, and July futures added 1 ¾ cents to 462.
• The deadline for the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is closing fast. Commodity markets likely added some risk in the event the agreement ends, and hostilities could potentially increase.
• The USDA’s attaché in Argentina forecast the country’s 2025/26 corn harvest at 61 million metric tons, well above the USDA’s last official estimate of 52 million tons, citing a larger planted area.
• The USDA announced two corn export flash sales for Tuesday morning. Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia, and 195,000 MT for delivery to Unknown Destinations. Both sales were for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• Biofuels and ethanol demand could be increasing on the global levels as exporters are looking for a biofuel source to help lower gasoline and diesel prices influenced by the US-Iran War.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, with primary support coming from strong gains in soybean oil following a move higher in crude oil. May soybeans gained 8-3/4 cents to $11.74-1/2 while November gained 8-3/4 cents to $11.66-1/2. May soybean meal was up $0.20 to $325.30, but deferred contracts were slightly lower. May soybean oil was up 2.51 cents to 72.14 cents, and crude oil is now up $2.52 a barrel to $92.13.
• The USDA Crop Progress report showed that 12% of the US soybean crop has now been planted which compared to 6% last week and 7% a year ago at this time. The 5-day weather forecast shows decent chances of rain for the eastern US.
• Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 749k tons which compared to 739k the previous week and 560k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to China who took 60% of the total, Egypt, and Japan.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated to be 92% complete as of April 16 which compares to 87% a week ago and 94% the year before. According to consulting firm Safras & Mercado, the 25/26 soy output is estimated at 178.11 mmt, an increase from the previous estimate of 177.2 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher across all three classes after having traded both sides of neutral. Spring wheat led the complex to the upside, potentially due to adverse weather conditions in the Canadian prairies which may result in a shorter planting window. In the May contract, Chicago gained 8 cents to 605, Kansas City was up 8-1/2 cents at 643-1/2, and MIAX rallied 10-1/4 cents to 665-1/2.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, US winter wheat conditions slipped 4% to 30% good to excellent. Furthermore, 20% of the crop is headed, which is 6% above last year and 8% above the five-year average. The spring wheat crop is said to be 12% planted, in line with the average but 4% behind last year’s pace. Finally, 2% of spring wheat has emerged, which is steady with last year’s pace as well as the average.
• India is reported to have approved exports of an additional 2.5 mmt of wheat, increasing their total exports to 5 mmt. USDA data indicated that they have not been a noteworthy wheat exporter since shipping 5.4 mmt during the 22/23 marketing year. India’s wheat planted area increased almost 2% this year to 33.42 million hectares, and 25/26 production is expected to reach 120.2 mmt.
• CONAB is estimating Brazil’s 2026 wheat area may reach 2.22 million hectares, which would represent a 9.2% decline from 2025. Wheat production is forecasted at 6.6 mmt, down 16% from last year’s crop. The lower productivity is said to be due to low profitability in recent years along with climate uncertainty; this is keeping their domestic prices firm.
• According to LSEG commodities research, the world wheat marketplace reflects ample supply on a global scale. However, geopolitical risks have caused increases in freight and insurance costs. LSEG also raised their estimate of Russian 25/26 wheat exports by 1 mmt to 44 mmt, while reducing Ukraine’s export estimate to 13 mmt versus 13.4 mmt last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong gains for Class IV futures saw the June contract settle at $22.05 today. The second month May contract is not far behind at $21.87.
• Spot powder once again hit a new all-time high at $2.2150/lb, gaining 1.50 cents. Butter lost that same amount to settle at $1.72/lb.
• Class III futures were mixed but saw the summer contracts hold gains. The May contract settled 27 cents higher at $17.30.
• Spot cheese saw blocks up 1.50 cents on 17 loads trade while barrels were unchanged, leading to a $1.5875/lb close. Whey was unchanged.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg