CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• It was another quiet day in the corn market as prices try to pushed through key resistance levels. The trading range was a narrow 4 ½ cents on the day for the July contracts. May corn futures slipped ½ cent to 455, while July futures lost ¼ cent to 463 ½. For the week, July futures closed 6 cents higher.
• May corn options expired on Friday, likely keeping the market in check today, hold between the 450-460 levels. Next week is First Notice Day for May futures on April 30. First notice day can provide some extra volatility into the futures market and traders need to exit long positions or basis price contracts need to be covered by producers.
• Rainfall hit the central part of the corn belt on Thursday night, which will likely continue with the current planting disruptions. Extended forecasts are looking to a drier, but cooler trend into early May.
• Recent precipitation has reduced drought coverage to 27% of the Corn Belt. While most core growing areas remain stable, dryness across the western Plains continues to be a concern.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after coming off earlier morning lows with support from both soybean meal and oil despite a move lower in crude oil. May soybeans gained 4 cents to 1163-3/4 while November gained just ¾ cent to 1155-3/4. May soybean meal was up $3.70 to $324.30 while soybean oil gained 0.25 cents to 71.1 cents despite a decline in crude oil of $1.66 a barrel.
• Soybeans have remained tightly rangebound for nearly two months as traders evaluate early growing season conditions and await clarity from President Trump’s upcoming meeting with China’s Xi. Trade prospects remain uncertain, with ongoing tensions tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fertilizer availability could come into play with soybean prices as some farmers may favor planting more soybean acres than corn if fertilizer supplies are not sufficient. While this will likely be a minor adjustment to this season, it could have big implications for next season due to potential bottlenecking while distributing fertilizer even if the Strait is reopened.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 3-1/2 cents while November lost just ¾ cent. May soybean meal lost $7.50, and May soybean oil gained 3.75 cents. First notice day for all May contracts is next week on April 30, so longs will have to exit or risk delivery.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Winter wheat closed in the red, likely due to prospects for better rains in the U.S. Southern Plains and pressure from a weaker MATIF close. Spring wheat, on the other hand, just managed to eke out a positive close. This could be attributed to the idea that HRW sources will be diminished, bolstering demand for high protein HRS wheat. In the May contract, Chicago lost 2-1/2 cents to 608-1/4, Kansas City fell 7-3/4 cents to 659, and MIAX gained 1-1/2 cents to 676.
• IKAR is reported to have lowered their Russian wheat production estimate by 1 mmt to 90 mmt due to adverse weather conditions in the Volga region. In addition, they also reduced their wheat export forecast by 1 mmt to 46.5 mmt.
• Saudi Arabia is said to be tendering for 710,000 mt of milling wheat for shipment in the June to August timeframe. With the deadline today, traders should have the results of the tender on Monday. U.S. wheat is likely too expensive on the global market to be considered.
• In the Black Sea region, there are ground frost warnings in Ukraine over the next two days. This could continue into next week as well; over the next 10 days, temperatures in Ukraine will be around 2-6 degrees Celsius below normal.
• According to the International Grains Council, total grain stockpiles at the end of the 25/26 season are anticipated to climb 9% from the season prior. If realized, this would be the largest increase in nine years. Global grain production is also seen rising 6% to 2.474 billion mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures edged high on support from a higher cheese and whey market. May futures climbed 22 cents to $17.55.
• Spot cheese improved half a cent to end the week at $1.63/lb. Whey prices posted a gain of 0.25 cents to close at $0.6975/lb.
• Class IV futures were sharply higher on butter rebounding and powder holding at a record high. May futures rose 50 cents to close at $22.29.
• Spot butter gained back what was lost yesterday, closing 6 cents higher to $1.7050/lb. Powder was unchanged at $2.26/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg