CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market gave back most of Monday’s gains as an overall negative money flow in the energy and grain markets pressured corn prices. July corn lost 5 ¾ cents to close at 480. And December corn lost 4 cents to close at 500 ½ cents.
• The corn market may be looking at a crossroads point with today’s price action. The market gave up early session gains but battled back to hold key support at 480 July and 500 December price levels. Tomorrow’s price action could be key to see if a trend develops in either direction.
• On the USDA Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon, corn planting advanced 13% last week to 38% complete. This was in line with analysts’ expectations, and even with last year and ahead of the 5-year pace by 4%.
• Corn planting pace should continue to make advances overall as weather forecasts are looking at a drier trend, despite below normals temperatures across the corn belt.
• Next week could bring some volatility to the grain markets. May 12 will give the market the next USDA WASDE report with first projections for the 2026-27 marketing year, possible legislation regarding E15 blending requirements is scheduled for U.S.-China trade meeting scheduled for May 14-15. Headline risk could be at a premium in the market next week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower giving back a good chunk of yesterday’s gains as lower crude oil prices weighed on the complex. July soybeans lost 11-1/4 cents to $12.11-1/2 while November lost 7-1/4 cents to $11.89-1/2, with resistance seemingly at $12.00. July soybean meal lost $0.50 to $320.40 while July soybean oil gained 0.38 cents to 76.91 cents.
• Yesterday, tensions flared with Iran, the US, and the United Arab Emirates. This drove crude oil prices sharply higher. Today, things seemed to calm down as a ship was allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under military protection, and the ceasefire has held. This caused crude oil prices to fall $4.30 a barrel, but soybean oil did not fall along with it.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report. The US soybean crop is now 33% planted which is way ahead of the typical pace. Last year at this time the crop was 28% planted and the 5-year average is 23% for this time of year. 13% of the crop is emerged which is also way ahead of schedule.
• Malaysian palm oil stockpiles for the month of April fell to their lowest levels in 8 months due to demand for more biofuels, similar to soybean oil. Despite the strong production, demand exceeded, and inventories fell by 0.4% from the previous month to 2.26 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted losses across all three classes – a forecast for mixed precipitation in the western plains and spillover pressure from other markets contributed to the lower trade. With energies down and lower closes for Corn, soybeans, and MATIF wheat, today’s price action is not surprising. In the July contract, Chicago lost 13-1/4 cents to 627-3/4, Kansas City fell 4-1/2 cents to 690, and MIAX dropped 3 cents to 696.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat conditions as of May 3 improved 1% for the week to 30% good to excellent. This remains well below the 51% reading at the same time last year. Additionally, 49% of the crop is headed, well above 37% a year ago and 32% on average. As for the spring wheat crop, 32% has been planted, versus 42% last year and 35% average. An estimated 10% of that crop is emerged, compared to 12% last year and 9% on average.
• South Africa is expecting to have the smallest wheat planted area in 10 years, due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. To add to the concerns, there is risk that El Niño could lead to drought conditions.
• According to their ag minister, Egypt is aiming for self-sufficiency in wheat for bread subsidies by 2028. Egypt is one of, if not the largest world wheat importers in recent years. Reportedly they need 8.6 mmt of wheat for subsidized bread production.
• The 15-day forecast calls for warm and dry conditions across most of China’s grain production areas, with isolated precipitation confined to the southwest and far northeast areas. The dry conditions should benefit winter wheat harvest. A similar story can be told for northern India, which should see warm and dry conditions also supporting winter wheat harvest.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were lifted higher by strength in the Class IV market. June and July futures were both up 8 cents to $17.29 and $17.89 respectively.
• Spot cheese was slightly weaker, losing 0.125 cents to close at $1.6225/lb. Whey held steady at $0.6950/lb.
• Class IV futures were sharply higher due to excellent exports and a higher butter market. June futures climbed 52 cents to $21.74.
• Spot butter improved 5.50 cents to $1.61/lb while powder tacked on 2 pennies to shoot to a new all-time high at $2.2825/lb.
• Today’s GDT auction was up 1.5% from the previous auction to 1,214 points. However, both cheese and butter were both down slightly on the auction.
• March Dairy Products showed cheese exports improving 29% year-over-year while butter exports were up 107% year-over-year.

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Author

Amanda Brill