TFM Midday Update 5-6-2026

CORN

Corn is trading sharply lower at midday, pressured by declining crude oil prices and ongoing discussion of a potential Iran peace agreement. May corn is down 11-1/2 cents at 4.54 while July corn is down 10-1/2 cents at 4.69-1/2.
Dr. Cordonnier continues to project a 1–2 million acre reduction in U.S. planted corn area from the March estimate of 95.33 million acres, along with a yield decline of 4.5 to 6.5 bushels per acre from last season’s 186 BPA.
Brazil’s southern safrinha regions received scattered showers this week; however, precipitation is expected to taper off as the weather front shifts north into central Brazil, consistent with the typical end of the wet season.
Ethanol production rebounded to 299 million gallons in the week ended May 1, up from 297 million the previous week. Corn usage for ethanol is estimated at approximately 100 million bushels.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday on optimism that a potential peace agreement with Iran could be reached within the next 48 hours, which would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The entire soy complex is lower at midday. May soybeans at 16-1/4 cents at 11.79-1/2.
Cordonnier estimates U.S. soybean acreage will be 1–2 million acres above the March figure of 84.7 million acres and expects yields to decline by 1 bushel per acre from last year to 52 BPA.
Very cool temperatures are expected across the Midwest and Plains over the next couple of nights, followed by a warming trend next week. Precipitation over the next seven days is expected to favor the southeastern U.S., with lighter amounts across the Midwest. Planting activity should begin to accelerate in the coming week.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday on Iran news, overriding any wheat concerns in the near term. May Chicago wheat is 18-1/4 cents lower at 5.98-1/4 while May Kansas City wheat is 9-3/4 cents lower at 6.67-1/2.
Very cold temperatures are expected across parts of the U.S. over the next several nights, particularly in Nebraska and Kansas, with snowfall forecast in eastern Colorado. These chilly conditions are likely to stress the HRW crop, which has already been impacted by ongoing drought.
The Oklahoma Wheat Commission crop tour confirmed yield concerns, estimating Oklahoma wheat yields at 23.11 BPA, down from 38 BPA last year. State production is projected at 47.799 million bushels — less than half of last year’s 106.4 million and well below the five-year average of 94.5 million.

Lauren VandenLangenberg